Investigating the Effect of Uncertainty on the Decision of Foreign Investors to Return to Iran
Mozhgan Babaee
1
(
Department pf economics, Zanjan branch, Islamic Azad University, Zanjan,Iran
)
Yadollah Rajaei
2
(
Department pf economics, Zanjan branch, Islamic Azad University, Zanjan,Iran
)
mohamad dalman pour
3
(
Faculty of Economics, Islamic Azad University, Zanjan Branch
)
Ashkan Rahimzadeh
4
(
Assistant professor , Faculty of Economics , Zanjan Azad University
)
Keywords: uncertainty, behavioral economy, foreign investors,
Abstract :
Uncertainty is considered one of the determining factors on foreign capital flows. Naminani chooses the limits of any factor in any process and is the source of behavioral rules. More uncertainty forces managers to make decisions and simply reinforce their behavioral rules. In an FDI operation, each new decision deals with potential sources of information about costs, revenues, and expenses. But access to these resources is a component of uncertainty. Due to uncertainty, the surers do not know whether the new information will improve their performance or not. Their response to potential information is both to the environment and to individual perceptions. In this article, in order to investigate the effect of uncertainty on foreign investments in Iran, the self-regression method of VAR has been used. The data was collected in the period of 1372-1400 from the sources of Iran's Investment and Economic and Technical Assistance Organization and the International Monetary Fund. This article is practical in terms of purpose, and in terms of data collection and description, it is causal and practical. The results obtained from the analysis by Johanson's aggregate method indicate that the capital stock ratio of gross production (cpi) has a positive effect, the inflation rate (inf) has a negative effect, and finally uncertainty (ins) has an effect on the inflow of capital. . has a foreign investment. The findings of the VAR autoregression model indicate that uncertainty has a negative effect on the decisions of foreign investors.