Data-based mechanistic modeling of rainfall-runoff process, case study: upper Karoun subbasin data analysis
Subject Areas : Agroecology Journal
Navid Jalalkamali
1
(Ph.D student of Irrigation Department of Islamic Azad University of Tehran, Science and Research Branch)
Hossein Sedghi
2
(Professor in Hydrology, Islamic Azad University of Tehran, Science and Research Branch.)
Keywords: Data-based mechanistic modeling, Rainfall -runoff process, Linear store model, Parallel flow process, Recursive estimation,
Abstract :
A major part of hydrological researches focused on complex and non-linear rainfall-runoff process. Mathematical models were presented to describe this process including a wide range from simple black-box representation to complex physically-based models. Considering inherent uncertainty associated with the process as a result of uncertain input variables and uncertain calibrated parameters, stochastic modeling seemed preferable to deterministic approaches. In this study, data-based mechanistic modeling (DBM) was selected to identify non-linearities of the process. The method is categorized as a stochastic approach relying upon recursive parameter estimation using Kalman filtering algorithm in state space system of equations. In addition, it is capable to reflect a physical interpretation of rainfall-runoff conversion to describe the behavior of the system. The later capability differs it from other black-box modeling approaches. In this research, a parallel structure of flow routes was identified in upper-Karoun subbasin of the great Karoun catchment. Sensitivity analysis was also carried out based on Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method and the reliability of the presented model were quantified.
1- جلال کمالی، ن. 1384. بررسی و بازنگری در شیوه استفاده از اطلاعات منطقهای و ویژگیهای زمانی و مکانی بارش و تلفات در شبیهسازی جریان به کمک مدلهای بارش – رواناب در حوضه آبریز کارون. رساله دکتری، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات تهران. 140صفحه.
2- صدقی، ح. 1371. ارزیابی و برآورد ابعاد حداکثر بارش و سیلاب متحمل حوضه آبریز کارون در پلشالو به عنوان معیار طراحی سد کارون 3. شرکت توسعه منابع آب و نیروی ایران، تهران،200 صفحه.
3- صدقی، ح. 1379. پروژه بهروزرسانی و بررسی گزارشات مطالعات هیدرولوژی سیلاب گتوند – گزارش نهایی. شرکت خدمات مهندسی برق مشانیر، تهران، 165 صفحه .
4. Beven, K. J. 2001. Rainfall-runoff modelling: the primer. Chichester: J. Willey. 360 .
5. Young, P.C. 2002a. Advances in real-time flood forecasting. CRES report number TR/176, Lancaster University Press, UK.
6. Young, P.C . and K. J. Beven. 1994. Data based mechanistic modeling and rainfall – flow non-linearity. Environmetrics. 5: 335-363.
7. Young, P.C., C. J. Taylor, W. Tych, D.J. Pedregal, and P.G. McKenna. 2004. The Captain Toolbox. Center for research on environmental systems and statistics, Lancaster university. U.K.
_||_