Forecasting OPEC Crude Oil Price by Applying Gray Forecasting Model

Subject Areas : Labor and Demographic Economics

H.  Javanmard ¹ (دانشیار مدیریت صنعتی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد اراک)
S. F  faghidian ² (دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد واحد علوم و تحقیقات اراک)

Received: 2014-06-21 Accepted : 2014-09-03 Published : 2015-02-01

Keywords: C02, C22, C63,

Abstract :

In world economy, crude oil is considered as one of the most strategic commodities playing a vital role in the determination of many regional and global equations. So, it is well known that an intense fluctuation of the oil price causes large recession in OPEC countries. So many researchers attempt to forecast crude oil price while oil market is one of the most complex, turbulent and chaotic international financial markets. In present research, gray system theory is utilized to model and forecast the price of crude oil. The results represent that gray forecasting model significantly improves the accuracy of the forecasting operation.

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