Inter-fuel Substitution in OECD and its Effects on the Fluctuations of Iran's Petroleum Exports

Subject Areas : Labor and Demographic Economics

teymoor mohammadi ¹ , hamid amadeh ² , fereidoon barkashli ³ , dariush vafinajar ⁴

1 - دانشیار اقتصاد دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی
2 - استادیار اقتصاد دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی
3 - عضو هیئت علمی مؤسسه مطالعات‌ بین‌المللی انرژی
4 - دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد نفت و گاز دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی و عضو هیئت علمی موسسه مطالعات بین‌المللی انرژی

Received: 2016-10-10 Accepted : 2016-10-10 Published : 2016-04-20

Keywords: OECD, Energy, Logit Model, MSI, Q47, D24, JEL Classification: Q41, L10 Keywords: Inter-fuel Substitution, Iran's Petroleum Export,

Abstract :

In this paper, based on the importance of Inter-fuel substitution, the researcher try to study the changes in Inter-fuel substitution in OECD and then to answer the question that "whether it has any effect on the fluctuation of Iran's petroleum exports in this market or not?" By using Linear Dynamic Logit model based on the equations of fuel and SURE to investigate inter-fuel substitution through four fuels including oil, gas, coal and electricity represent that the electricity and gas is the most intensive in short and long-term alternative to oil. The estimation of this system as simultaneous to MSI model for Iran's oil exports in OECD market indicate that these substitutions affect the fluctuations of Iranian petroleum exports. 

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