Evaluation of Survival and Risk Probability of Exchange Regimes in Economies having Exchange Anchor Monetary System and Inflation Targeting - Duration Model Approach

Subject Areas : Labor and Demographic Economics

AliReza Kazerooni ¹ , Hosein asgharpour ² , Majid Feshari ³

1 - استاد دانشگاه تبریز
2 - دانشیار دانشگاه تبریز
3 - استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه علوم اقتصادی

Received: 2015-04-12 Accepted : 2015-04-12 Published : 2013-04-01

Keywords: Pegged Exchange Rate Regime, Floating Exchange Rate Regime, Duration Model Approach,

Abstract :

The main objective of this paper is to investigate the survival and risk probability of pegged and floating exchange rate regimes in different countries: those having exchange rate anchor versus those having inflation targeting monetary regimes during 1999-2010. In order to achieve the goal, Duration Model Approach will be used to represent the survival and risk analysis of pegged and floating exchange rate regimes. The empirical findings of this paper suggest that, in two groups of countries, the floating exchange rate is a credible regime and it has a lower risk and then higher survival probability.