Climate Change and Urban Instability: Assessment of the Consequences of Climate Migrants on Cities, Case Study: Zahedan City

Subject Areas :

Hossein Yaghfoori ¹ , Esmail Rahmani ²

1 - Assistant Professor of Geography and Urban Planning, University of Sistan and Baluchistan, Zahedan, Iran
2 - Ph.D. student of Geography and urban planning, University of Sistan and Baluchistan, Zahedan, Iran

Received: 2023-05-22 Accepted : 2023-08-10 Published : 2024-01-21

Keywords: Climate Change, Informal settlements, Zahedan, drought, Zahedan: migration,

Abstract :

Earth's climate has always been changing throughout history, but with the beginning of the industrial revolution, the human role in climate change has increased. This is mainly due to the increase in the consumption of fossil fuels, urbanization, deforestation, desertification, etc., climate changes in human societies can lead to the migration of millions of people, the consequences of climate change The distribution of human population is not clear and unpredictable. The reflection of the displacement of the population appears in the cities and causes the formation of immigrant settlements in the peri-urban areas of big cities. The main goal of this research was to investigate the effects of climate change on the instability of Zahedan city. To achieve this goal, the average maximum and minimum data of temperature and relative humidity elements and total precipitation on a monthly scale related to Zahedan synoptic station in the 30-year statistical period from 1990 to 2020 were used. In this research, the non-parametric method of SENS test was used to evaluate the trend and spi was used for the standard precipitation index; Finally, 100 samples were used to test the questionnaire data. The results in the trend section showed that in the minimum, the most changes were related to the months of April, May, September, and October, and the maximum temperature changes occurred in the months of April, August, and October. In relative humidity, the biggest changes were in the form of a decrease in relative humidity in the month of November. The drought process based on the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) started in 1997, in fact, from 1998 to 2020, except for 2015, when the situation was relatively wet, Zahedan experienced drought in the rest of the years. The city had excellent and suitable conditions during the review period of 1991 and 1995 only. The results of the research based on the data of the questionnaire about neighborhood sustainability show that the highest average value is 2.3 related to the environmental dimension and the lowest average value is 2.5 related to the physical dimension. The overall neighborhood stability average is 2.8. This figure shows the weak stability (instability) of the researched neighborhoods, it can be said that the stability of the neighborhoods in the studied neighborhoods is not in a good condition and the citizens are dissatisfied in this regard.

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