The Comparison of Bankruptcy Predicting Power Models by Zaougin, Zmijewski and Shirata in Tehran Stock Exchange

Subject Areas : مدیریت

Farzin Rezaei ¹ , Mehdi Goldooz ²

1 - دانشکده مدیرت و حسابداری-دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد قزوین(عهده¬دار مکاتبات)
2 - کارشناس ارشد مدیریت بازرگانی دانشگاه آزاداسلامی واحد قزوین

Received: 2013-10-28 Accepted : 2013-10-28 Published : 2011-10-23

Keywords: Bankruptcy, Financial Ratio, Discriminate analysis, Logit analysis,

Abstract :

Bankruptcy anticipation is a phenomenon which has been increasingly favored by investors, banks and financial and credit institutes. Since the potential signs of bankruptcy would be understood a few months before the real appearance of it, so the timely and accurate anticipation of this crisis will give the opportunity to managers and creditors in order to adopt preventable activities. The aim of this study was to explore the applicability of the Zaougin, Zmijewski and Shirata’s models. Initially, the independent variables of the two samples were investigated, using F test to review the accuracy of segregation of two bankrupted and un-bankrupted  samples and then to examine the difference in importance of independent variables models, the magnitude of cooperation in group between variables. Sample selection and suitability of variables with less error criteria and meaningful cooperation test was carried out. Data were run using two statistical difference analysis and logistic regression (in three methods, inter, forward and backward). The results indicate the accuracy of Shirata’s model at 98.6%, Zaougin’s model at 87% and Zmijewski model at 89.6% in accordance with Iran environmental conditions