Hazard functions and conditional probability of earthquake occurrences in major fault zones in Turkey

Subject Areas : Geophysics

Hakan Karaca ¹

1 - Department of Architecture, Omer Halisdemir University, Nigde, Turkey

Received: 2022-02-24 Accepted : 2022-10-28 Published : 2023-04-01

Keywords:

References:

1. Abaimov SG, Turcotte DL, Shcherbakov R, Rundle JB, Yakovlev G, Goltz C, Newman WI. (2008) Earthquakes: Recurrence and Interoccurrence Times. Earthquakes. Pure and Applied Geophysics 165:777–795.


2. Akkar S, Cagnan Z, Yenier E, Erdogan O, Sandıkkaya MA, Gulkan P (2010) The recently compiled Turkish strong motion database: preliminary investigation for seismological parameters. Journal of Seismology 14:457-479.


3. Anagnos T, Kiremidjian AS (1988). A review of earthquake occurrence models for seismic hazard analysis. Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics 3(1): 3-11.


4. Bak P, Christensen K, Danon L, Scanlon T (2002). Unified scaling law for earthquakes. Physical Review Letters 88: 178501.


5. Bountzis P, Papadimitriou E, Tsaklidis G (2018). Estimating the earthquake occurrence rates in Corinth Gulf (Greece) through Markovian arrival process modeling. Journal of Applied Statistics: 1–26.


6. Cao A, Gao SS (2002). Temporal variation of seismic b- values beneath northeastern Japan Island Arc, Geophysical Research Letters: 29:48(1)-48(3).


7. Chen C, Wang JP, Wu YM, Chan CH (2013) A study of earthquake interoccurrence distribution models in Taiwan. Natural Hazards 69(3):1335–1350.


8. Coban HK, Sayıl N (2019) Evaluation of earthquake recurrences with different distribution models in western Anatolia. Journal of Seismology 23:1405-1422.


9. Convertito V, Faenza L (2014) Earthquake Recurrence, Encyclopedia of Earthquake Engineering, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg (pp.1-21).


10. Corral A (2003) Local distributions and rate fluctuations in a unified scaling law for earthquakes. Physical Review E 68: 035102(R).


11. Davies PM, Jackson DD, Kagan YY (1989). The longer it has been since the last earthquake, the longer the expected time till the next? Bulletin of Seismological Society of America 79: 1439–1456.


12. Gardner JK, Knopoff L (1974). Is the sequence of earthquakes in Southern California, with aftershocks removed, Poissonian?. Bulletin of Seismological Society of America 64(5): 1363–1367.


13. Hagiwara, Y (1974) Probability of earthquake occurrence as obtained from a Weibull distribution analysis of crustal strain. Tectonophysics 23(3):313–318.


14. Hasumi T, Chen CC, Akimoto T, Aizawa Y (2010) The Weibull-log Weibull transition of interoccurrence time for synthetic and natural earthquakes. Tectonophysics 485:9–16.


15. Luen B, Stark PB (2012) Poisson tests of declustered catalogues, Geophysical Journal International, 189:691-700.


16. KOERI-RETMC (2020). Earthquake Catalog of Turkey [online]. Website http://www.koeri.boun.edu.tr/sismo/zeqdb/ [accessed 06.06.2020].


17. Kuehn NM, Hainzl S, Scherbaum F (2008) Non-Poissonian earthquake occurrence in coupled stress release models and its effect on seismic hazard. Geophysical Journal International 174(2): 649-658


18. Matthews MV (2002) A Brownian Model for Recurrent Earthquakes. Bulletin of Seismological Society of America 92(6): 2233–2250.


19. Musson RMW (2002) A Power-Law Function for Earthquake Interarrival Time and Magnitude. Bulletin of Seismological Society of America 92(5):1783–1794.


20. Naylor M, Touati S, Main IG, Bell AF (2010) Earthquake interevent time distributions reflect the proportion of dependent and independent events pairs and are therefore not universal, EGU General Assembly, Austria.


21. Pasari S, Dikshit O (2015) Earthquake IET distribution in Kachchh. northwestern India. Earth Planets and Space 67:129.


22. Parvez IA, Ram A (1997) Probabilistic Assessment of earthquake hazards in the north-east Indian Peninsula and Hindukush regions. Pure and Appled Geophysics 149:731–746.


23. Rikitake T (1976) Recurrence of great earthquakes at subduction zones. Tectonophysics 35(4):335–362.


24. Touati S, Naylor M, Main IG (2009) Origin and Nonuniversality of the Earthquake Interevent Time Distribution, Physical Review Letters 102(16):168501.


25. Saichev A Sornette D (2007) Theory of earthquake recurrence times, Journal of Geophysical Research 112 (B04).


26. Sornette D, Knopoff L (1997) The paradox of the expected time until the next earthquake. Bulletin of Seismological Society of America 87:789–798.


27. Yazdani A, Kowsari M (2011) Statistical prediction of the sequence of large earthquakes in Iran. International Journal of Engineering, Transactions B: Applications 24(4):325–336.


28. Ulusay R, Tuncay E, Sonmez H, Gokceoglu C (2004). An attenuation relationship based on Turkish strong motion data and iso-acceleration map of Turkey. Engineering Geology 74:265-291.


29. Utsu T (1984). Estimation of parameters for recurrence models of earthquakes. Bulletin of Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo 59:53-66.


30. Utsu T (2002) Statistical Features of Seismicity In: Lee W. (ed) International Handbook Of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, 1^st edn. Academic Press, pp 719-732.


31. Zare M, Amini H, Yazdi P, Sesetyan K, Demircioglu MB, Kalafat D, Erdik M, Giardini D, Khan MA, Tsereteli N (2014) Recent developments of the Middle East catalog. Journal of Seismology 18:749-772.