Extreme value frequency analysis of annual wind for grate Khorasan

Subject Areas : Information Technology in Engineering Design (ITED) Journal

Farhad  khamchin moghadam ¹ (Assistant Professor, Islamic Azad University – Mashhad Branch,Mashhad,Iran)
hojat  Rezaee Parand ² (Assistant Professor, Islamic Azad University – Mashhad Branch)
Mahboobeh  Farzandi ³ (M.S Degree Of Civil Engineering,Ferdosi University ,Mashhad)

Received: 2017-01-31 Accepted : 2017-01-31 Published : 2015-08-23

Keywords:

Abstract :

The annual fastest wind analysis of the important requirements in the design of tall building, Dams, etc. The annual fastest winds of grate Khorasan province synoptic stations selected for statistically analysis. The data were screened and the basic tests (randomness, homogeneity, independence, etc.) were investigated. The data of four station have outliers and not random. Five stations were not stationery and heterogeneous. The seven distribution functions Gumble type 1, gamma 2 parameters, lognormal 2 and 3 parameters, Generalized Pareto, generalized Extreme values and Pearson type 3 with five estimation methods (conventional moments, maximum likelihood, probable weighted moments, maximum entropy and modified moments) were fitted. The Ks goodness of fit test applied to determine the suitability of the chosen distribution and superior distribution. Three priorities for each station were established. Because of the physical behavior of this phenomenon is well justified. Generalized Pareto 21 times and General Extreme value 11 times were the best fitted distributions. Probability weighted moments were the best estimation methods in all distributions.  

References:

1-      Alizadeh, A., Kamali,Gh., Mousavi, F., Mousavi-Bygi, Weather & Climate, Twelfth edition, Ferdowsi University Press, 2009, 382 pp.

2-      Fallah Ghahari, Gh., Essentials and Fundamentals of Meteorology, Climatical Research Institute, Ferdowsi University Press, 2011, 806 pp.

3-      Martin, J.E., Mid-Latitude Atmospheric Dynamics, Masoodian, S.A., Esfahan University Press, 2009, 441 pp.

4-      Al Buhairi, M. H., 2006, A Statistical Analysis of wind speed data and an assessment of wind energy potential in Taiz-Yemen, Ass. Univ. Bull. Environ. Res. Vol. 9 No. 2.

5-       Linaerc E., 1992, Climate Data and Resourses, Roulledge, Pub.

6-      Chiou, p., Weiwen Miao, and T. C. Ho, 2012, The Annual Maximum Wind Speed at Pisa Airport in Italy, International Journal of Environmental Science and Development, Vol. 3, No. 3, June 2012

7-      Simiu, E., R.H. Scanlan, 1996, Wind Effects on Structures, Wliey, Pub.

8-      Yevjevich, V., 1972, Probability and Statistics in Hydrology, Water Resources PUB.

9-      Riordan P., 1994, World Weather Extrems, DIANE Pup

10-  Rezaee-Pazhand, H., Probability and Statistical application in water resources, first pub. Azad University of mashhad, Sokhan Gostar, 2001, 468 pp.

11-  Juslus T C. G. et all, 1978,Method for estimating wind speed frequency distributiond, J. Applied Meteorology

12-  Darbandi, S., Aalami M.T., Asadi, H., 2012, Comparison of Four Distributions for Frequency Analysis of Wind Speed, Environment and Natural Resources Research Vol. 2, No. 1; March 2012.

13-  Holmes, J. D., & Moriarty, W. W. (1999). Application of the generalised Pareto distribution to extreme valueanalysis in wind engineering. Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics, 83, 1-10. http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1016/S0167-6105(99)00056-2

14-  Rajabi M. R., & Modarres, R. (2008). Extreme value frequency analysis of wind data from Isfahan, Iran. Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics, 96,78-82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j. jweia. 2007.03.005

15-   http://www.Wikipedia.ir/

16-  http://www.weather.ir/

17-  Edmond, F., Schulz, Victor, A., Koelzer, Kh. M., 1973, Floods and droughts, Water Resources Publications, 679 pages.

18-  Bobee. B., Ashkar, Gamma Family and Derived Distributions Applied in Hydrology, Rezaee-Pazhand, H., first pub. Ferdowsi University Press, 1995, 890 pp.

19-  Maronna, R. A., et al, 2006, "Robust Statistics", Jhon Wiley.

20-  Barnet, V. and Lewis, T., 1994, Outliers in Statistical data, WILEY,  New York.

21-  Scheaffer, R.L., Mendenhall, W., Ott, R.L., Elementary Survey Sampling, Arghami, N., Sanjari, Bozorgnia, A., Fourth edition, Ferdowsi University Press, 2001, 435 pp.

22-  Rao R., A., et al, 2000, Flood Frequency Analaysis, CRC Press LLC.