Analysis of variables affecting the geopolitical confrontation between China and the United States in the South China Sea
Subject Areas :محمدرضا سیدآبادی 1 , یداله کریمی پور 2 , حسین ربیعی 3 , بهزاد شاهنده 4
1 - دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران
2 - استاد جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران
3 - دانشیار گروه جغرافیای سیاسی دانشگاه خوارزمی
4 - استاد روابط بین الملل، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
Keywords: Confrontation, Geopolitics, South China Sea, USA,
Abstract :
Introduction: The defeat of the United States in the Vietnam War and the fall of the Soviet Union put China in a good position to expand its power in East Asia. In a short period of time, Beijing became a world power and formed a third geostrategic sphere of influence in competition with the continental and maritime worlds. Also, China's rapid economic growth in recent decades has provided a good platform for strengthening its military might and expansionist measures. China's rise to power and uprising is a moment in time to test its strength and balance, and the aftermath of China's rapid rise over the past 40 years has inevitably led to a challenge to the dominant powers, especially the United States. This study seeks to answer the question of what variables are affected by the geopolitical developments of the South China Sea in the 21st century? Conflicts such as disputes over the South China Sea islands, ownership of hydrocarbon reserves, limitation of navigation operations, use of geoeconomic levers, etc. have been studied in this study. Explored by the United States against China, as well as the challenges of implementing it, and the indications for using this strategy in a variety of policies, including: return to Asia policies, increasing the implementation of naval freedom operations. In the South China Sea, support for the TPP trade agreement, participation in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), strengthening of ASEAN against China, etc. have also been challenged. He emphasizes that China is not a single player, but today in this country, different factions and political institutions are competing to influence foreign policy.
Methodology:This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of nature and method. The data needed to argue and answer research questions have been collected from library sources. In the analysis of research findings, qualitative analysis method was used and the final conclusion of the research was based on qualitative analysis.
Results and discussion:While the US containment strategy with challenges such as slowing militaristic approaches, deindustrialisation of the US economy and tax cuts, costless and fruitless interventions in the Middle East, extensive security commitments in NATO and other alliances Defense and, ultimately, massive national debt, some of which are financed by China, are largely vulnerable to external economic pressures, but on the other hand, the Pacific West consists of a series of consecutive islands in They are located at different distances from the coasts of Asia. As shown in the figure, this chain of islands is under the tutelage of the Western Allies (US, France, UK, New Zealand, Australia and Japan) and the United States has almost absolute sovereignty.
In addition, the Pacific West, as the main battlefield between the United States and Japan in World War II, has a geography in which the United States and Japan have key locations and a long history of naval warfare. The strong alliance between the United States and Japan, along with the partnership of Australia and India, provides significant long-term barriers to preventing Chinese forces from expanding into the Pacific or Indian Ocean. Finally, the Chinese navy has no experience in modern oceanic wars, has no historical presence in the region that it can use to establish a hegemony and as a powerful country, and the communist regime in China can defeat any Stimulate the emotions associated with China's century of humiliation and be completely vulnerable.
Conclusion:Overall, Asia seems to have become a priority in US foreign policy, policy and ideology. US concern in the South China Sea is not simply a fear of the potential for escalation of military conflict in the region or even a commitment to its allies; Rather, US involvement in the dispute is an attempt to contain China's rise, which threatens US hegemony in the region and the world.
In China today, various political factions and institutions are competing to influence foreign policy. On the one hand, the impetus for the realization of territorial claims and national unity, and on the other hand, the demands of the global economy, on which export-based economic growth largely depends, compete with each other. Since the foreign policy interests of countries and their willingness to pursue the security power project are influenced by domestic political institutions and their economic interests, it was suggested that the Chinese government should not be integrated; But to be seen as pluralistic, decentralized and international; So it would be misleading to assume that there is a single Chinese logic and reaction to international affairs. Nowhere is it as clear as the South China Sea, where various national and sub-national government departments operate without coordination, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs does not clearly control China's policy towards the South China Sea. Their study provides valuable insights into the impact of small foundations on shaping the motivation of leading expansionist actors in the South China Sea, and challenges any simple description of a large coherent strategy of Chinese policy in the SCS
Agnew,John.(2010).Emerging China and Critical Geopolitics:Between World Politics and Chinese Particularity.Eurasian Geoghraphy and Economics,2010,51,No.5,pp.569-582.
Ataka, Hiroaki. (2016). Geopolitics or Geobody Politics? Understanding the Rise of China and Its Actions in the South China Sea Asian .Journal of Peacebuilding Vol. 4 No. 1 (2016): 77-95
Blackwill RD, Tellis A. (2015). Revising U. S. Grand Strategy Toward China. Council on Foreign Relations Press At: -https://carnegieendowment. org/files/Tellis_Blackwill. pdf. China ‘s Islands Factory, Available at: http://www. bbc. com/news/magazine-29107792 access on 18 October 2014
Cohen, Saul Bernard. (2007). Geopolitics of the World System, translated by Abbas Kardan, Abrar Contemporary International Institute for Cultural Studies and Research, Tehran, First Edition. ersity of Guilan, December 2017, p829. (In Persian).
Dehshiar, Hussein; Najmabadi, Morteza; Bakhshi, Hussein. (2017). Sino-US Competition in the South China Sea, Political Strategy Quarterly, Year 3, Issue 9, Summer 2017, pp1-41. (In Persian).
Department of Defense. (2017). Annual Report to Congress [on] Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2017, May 15, 2017,
Frawel,M.Taylor.(2011).China,s Strategy in the South China Sea.Contemporary Southest Asia.Vol.33,No.3(2011),pp.292-319.
Friedberg, Aaron L. (2014). “The Sources of Chinese Conduct: Explaining Beijing’s Assertiveness.” The Washington Quarterly 37: 133–150.
Fu RT, David JG, Hundman E, Liff AP, Ikenberry GJ. (2015). Correspondence: Looking for Asia’s Security Dilemma. International Security 40: 181-204
Gholamhosseinzadeh, N. (2017). Thesis on China's Economic Growth and the Challenges of US Hegemony in the Asia-Pacific Region, Department of Political Science, International Relations, University of Guilan, December 2017, p111. (In Persian).
Graham A. (2017). Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? Houghton Mifflin Harcourt; pp: 69-70
Haddick, R. (2014). Fire on the Water: China, America and the Future of the Pacific (Annapolis: Naval Institute Press) 21-27, 31-32, 34-45, 64-67, 90-95 and 139-143
Hafez nia, Mohammad Reza. (2005). Principles and Concepts of Geopolitics, Papli Publications (affiliated to Amirkabir Jahan Research Institute), First Edition, p400. (In Persian).
Hameiri, Shahar, and Lee Jones. (2016). “Rising Powers and State Transformation: The Case of China.” European Journal of International Relations 22 (1): 72-98 https://www. bbc. com/news/world-asia-china-41647872
Ikenberry GJ. (2016). Between the Eagle and the Dragon: America, China, and Middle State Strategies in East Asia. Political Science Quarterly 131: 9-43
Ikenberry JG, Lim DJ. (2017). China’s emerging institutional statecraft, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the prospects for counter-hegemony. Brookings.
Jeffrey AB, Kenneth GL, Michael M. (2014). Report; Keeping the South China Sea in Perspective. Brookings. At: https://www. brookings. edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/south-china-sea-perspective-bader-lieberthal-mcdevitt. pdf
Johnston, Alastair Iain. (2013). “How New and Assertive Is China’s New Assertiveness?” International Security 37 (4): 7-48
Kathleen, Braden; Shelley, Fard. (2000). Inclusive Geopolitics, (2000), translated by Farshchi, Ali Reza; Rahnama, Hamidreza; First Edition (2005), Publisher of the High War Period, P. 400. (In Persian).
Liff AP. (2016). “Whither the Balancers? The Case for a Methodological Reset. ” Security Studies 25: 1-42.
Liff AP, Andrew SE. (2013). Demystifying China’s Defence Spending: Less Mysterious in the Aggregate. China Quarterly 216: 805-830
Majid, Munir. (2014). “Southeast Asian View of China’s ‘Not So Neighbourly’ Rise. ” International Politics 51 (3): 398-403.
Markowitz, Jonathan. (2014). When and Why States Project Power 2014 Series: UC San Diego Electronic Theses and Dissertations Degree: Political scienceUC San Diego Permalink: at: http://escholarship. org/uc/item/5hr5m1gr
Martin D Mitchell. (2016). The South China Sea: A Geopolitical Analysis Journal of Geography and Geology; Vol. 8, No. 3; 2016. At: http://www. ccsenet. org/journal/index. php/jgg/article/view/62416
Mearsheimer, John J. (2014). “Can China Rise Peacefully?” In The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, Updated, 360-411. New York: W. W. Norton
Mojtahedzadeh, Pirooz. (2003). Political Geography and Geographical Politics, Samat Publications, First Edition, p. 382. (In Persian)
Moradi, Eskandar; Afzali, Rasoul. (2014). New ideas in geopolitics, Postmodernism-Poststructuralism and Discourse, Green Publications, First Edition, 344 pages
Qin Qi1, 2, Cheng Shengkui1, 2, LI Fei1, 2, Zhang Shuwen3, WU Liang1, Zhang Dan1. (2019). Approach to the Geopolitical Influences of Great Powers in Southeast Asia: Case Studies of China and the US، Chin. Geogra. Sci. 2019 Vol. 29 No. 2 pp. 341–351 At: https://doi. org/10. 1007/s11769-018-0998-7
Rastgou Afkham, A. (2017). Thesis on the Legitimacy of the US Maritime Freedom Program in the South China Sea, Shahid Beheshti University School of Law, 2017, p167. (In Persian).
Ratner, Ely. (2017). How to Stop China's Maritime Advance. Essay July/August 2017 Issue U. S. Foreign PolicyAt:https://www.realclearworld. com/2017/07/13/how_to_stop_china039s_maritime_advance_186461. html
Rolf, S. (2016). Sovereignty regimes in the South China Sea & Agnew, J Economics, 57(2), 249-273. DOI: 10. 1080/15387216. 2016. 1234403 https://www. tandfonline. com/doi/abs/10. 2747/1539-7216. 51. 5. 569
Storey,Ian.(2014).The South China Sea Dispute:How Geopolitics Impedes Dispute Rezolution and Conflict Management.Global and Regional Powers in a Changing World.FLACSO- ISA,Buenos Aires,Argentina,23-25 july 2014.
Thayer, C. (2016). Australian Intelligence: China Poised to Take Decisive Action in the South China Sea. The Diplomat. Retrieved April 22, 2016, at: http://thediplomat. com/2016/04/australian-intelligence-chinapoised-to-take-decisive-and-provocative-action-in-the-south-china-sea/
Victor Alexandre Gonçalves Teixeira. (2018). United States’ Policy Strategy in South China Sea Volume 1:6SchJApplSciRes2018At:https://www.researchgate. net/publication/331585211_United_States’_Policy_Strategy_inSouth_China_Sea_Citation_Teixeira_VAG_2018_United_States’_Policy_Strategy_in_South_China_Sea
