The effect of the political cycle on the Tehran Stock market trading volume and liquidity
Subject Areas : Journal of Investment Knowledge
Farhad Hanifi
1
(
Assistant Professor of IAU, Tehran Central Branch
)
Ghasem Gholamlou
2
(
M.A in Financial Management, IAU, Tehran Central Branch
)
Keywords: stock exchange, political cycle, liquidity Index, trading volume,
Abstract :
This study examines the impact of political cycle on Tehran stock Exchange performance. Political cycle is a four-year cycle that Is known to political business cycle and Presidential cycle. Political cycle theory shows that stock returns fall during the first half of a presidency, and rise during the second half of a presidency .Also Stock market performance in different years from a government in USA Indicated stock returns is lower in the second year than in other years .In this study, stock market performance is measured by Trading volume and Liquidity Index. The research method is based on the goal, application and is based on the method descriptive .we used two methods to collect data and content,library method and Using the Exchange documents. The study used descriptive and inferential statistics. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS software. The results of this research indicate that There is significant relationship Between the independent variable (Political cycle) and dependent variables ( Trading volume and Liquidity Index ). In other words, there is significant difference between Thehran stock performance (Basis of two indicators) the first half and second half of a presidency. Also, there is no significant difference between Thehran stock performance the different years of a presidency. In summary , this research shows Tehran Stock Exchange follow the political cycle.
