Prioritization of stock price bubble measuring factors with a behavioral approach

Subject Areas : Journal of Investment Knowledge

ALI  RAMEZANI ¹ (Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Financial Management, Faculty of Management and Economics, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.)
Fraydoon  Rahnamay Roodposhti ² (Full Professor, Department of Business Management, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.)
HAMIDREZA  KORDLOUIE ³ (Professor and faculty member of Islamic Azad University –Eslamshahr Branch, Department of Financial Management, Tehran, Iran.)
SHADI  Shahverdiani ⁴ (Assistant Professor, Department of Business Management, Shahre Qods Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.)

Received: 2021-12-29 Accepted : 2022-01-12 Published : 2023-06-22

Keywords: Behavioral Approach, Mass Behavior, Speculation Behavior, Price Bubble, Investor Heterogeneity,

Abstract :

Behavioral bubble models generally assume that real investors,as uninformed and irrational individuals, follow the trend and cause bubbles to form,while legal investors,as informed,adopt a reverse behavioral strategy. They go against the trend. Therefore,the main purpose of this study was to prioritize the factors of measuring the stock price bubble with a behavioral approach. The method of the present study is descriptive survey and the statistical population consists of 10 capital market experts. ANP was used to prioritize the identified behavioral factors. The threshold value must be calculated to map the network relationships. In this study,a threshold value of0.059 was obtained.to normalize the preferences of each criterion,the sum of the values of that criterion must be divided by the sum of all preferences. Because the values are fuzzy,the fuzzy sum of each row is multiplied by the inverse of the sum. The inverse sum must be calculated.Each of the obtained values of fuzzy and normalized weight corresponds to the main criteria.In the final step of de-fuzzing, the values obtained and the crisp number are calculated.The incompatibility rate of the comparisons is0.026 ,which is less than0.1 ,and therefore the comparisons can be trusted.Calculations performed to determine the priority of the main criteria showed that heterogeneity of investors with a normal weight of0.128 has the highest priority.Speculative behavior with a normal weight of0.107 is in the second priority.Mass behavior with a normal weight of 0.1067 Is in the third priority and mental accounting with a normal weight of0.092 is in the last priority.

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