Evaluation of climate change and prediction of its impacts on efficiency and fuel consumption of thermal power plants in Iran in next decade

Subject Areas : environmental management

Andisheh Shiehbeigi ¹ , Majid Abbaspour ² , Mohammad Soltaniyeh ³ , Farhad Hosseinzadeh ⁴ , Zahra Abedi ⁵

1 - PhD Graduate of Energy Engineering, Faculty of Energy and Environment, Tehran Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 - Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
3 - Faculty of Chemical Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
4 - Faculty of Basic Sciences, Tehran Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
5 - Facultyof Energy and Environment, Tehran Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran Abstracts of Articles in English J.Env.

Received: 2013-11-10 Accepted : 2014-01-24 Published : 2014-07-23

Keywords: Climate Change, Efficiency, Thermal Power plant, Fuel, Emissions, Social costs,

Abstract :

Several studies yet have been conducted in the field of climate change in different parts of the worldin order to investigate the impact of meteorological parameters changes on the performance of energysector. In this study, the effect of climate change on the performance of energy generation sector atIran power plants in next decade has been investigated using the results of climate change calculationsin the country’s provinces obtained by downscaling through neural network. Calculations show thatthe efficiency of gas power plants averagely decreases by 0.6% per 1 oC temperature increase.Similarly, the efficiency of steam and combined cycle power plants averagely decreases by 0.5% and0.4% respectively. Considering the climate change consequences in Iran, the overall temperature willaveragely increase about 1.36 oC by the year 2025. Conduction a close investigation, the averagetemperature rise affecting the performance of power plants in the country - which would cause a dropin energy generation sector efficiency - was evaluated to be 1.13 oC. After making calculations andutilizing energy and environment software, it was found that the thermal power plants’ fuelconsumption will increase about 2.49%. The results revealed that the amount of carbon dioxideemission and social costs caused by emissions will increase by about 1.3% and 2%, respectively.

References:

1. IPCC, 2001. In: Houghton, et al. (Eds.) and WMO/UNEP, Climate Change 2000. The Science of Climate Change, Assessment Report of the IPCC Working Group, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.


2. Christensen, N.S., Wood, A.W., Visin, N., Lettenmaier, O.P., Palmer, R.N., (2005), “The effects of Climate Change on the Hydrology and Water Resources of the Colorado River Basin”.


3. Goasian, A.K., Rao, S., Basuray, D., 2003. “Assessment of vulnerability and adaptation for water sector”. NATCOM Vulnerability and Adaptation Workshop on Water Resources, Coastal Zones and Human Health, Ministry of Enviroment, New Delhi.


4. Samadi, S., Carbone, G. J., Mahdavi, M., Sharifi, F. and Bihamta, M. R. (2012), “Statistical downscaling of climate data to estimate streamflow in a semi-arid Catchment”, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. 9: 4869–4918.


5. IPCC, (2006). “Climate Change: The Physical Science Basis.” Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1-18.


6. Sailor, D.J., Hu, T., Li, X., Rosen, J.N., (2000)” A neural network approach to local Downscaling of GCM output for assessing wind power implications of climate change”, Renewable Energy 19, 359-368.


7. Karakas, E. (2006)," Inlet Air Cooling Method for Gas Turbine Based Power Plant", ASME vol. 128, pp. 312-316.


8. Mohanty B., (1995),"Enhancing Gas Turbine Performance By Intake Air Cooling Using an Absorption Chiller", Heat Recovery Systems & CHP vol.15, pp. 41-50


9. حاجی دولو ا.، درویشی م. و وثوق ا.، (1388)، "بررسی تاثیر دمای حباب خشک و تر محیط بر راندمان انرژی و اکسرژی نیروگاه فوق بحرانی رامین اهواز". هفدهمین کنفرانس سالانه (بین المللی) مهندسی مکانیک.
   
   
   1. Sarabpreet S. & Rajesh K., (2012), "Ambient Air Temperature Effect on Power Plant Performance "International Journal of Engineering Science and Technology vol.4, No.08, pp3916-3923.
   
   
   2. Ameri, M. (2004)," The study of Capacity Enhancement of the chamber Gas Turbine Insulation Using an Absorption Chiller", Applied Thermal Engineering vol.24, pp.59-68
   
   
   3. Boonasa, S. (2006), "Performance Improvement of The Combined Cycle Power Plant By Intake Air Cooling Using an Absorption Chiller", Energy vol.31, pp. 2036-2046.
   
   
   4. Alhazmy, M.M. (2004), Augmentation of Gas Turbine Performance Using Air Coolers, Applied Thermal Engineering vol.24, pp.415-429.
   
   
   5. Coulibaly, P., Anctil, F., and Bobee, B., (2000). “Daily reservoir inflow forecasting using artificial neural networks with stopped training approach.” J. Hydrology., 230, 244-256.
   
   
   6. ASCE Task Committee on Application of Artificial Neural Network in Hydrology, (2000). Artificial neural networks in hydrology, I: preliminary concepts. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 5(2): 115-123.
   
   
   7. آمار تفصیلی صنعت برق ایران، تولید نیروی برق سال 1391، وزارت نیرو، شرکت مادر تخصصی توانیر
   
   
   8. مجید عباسپور؛ (1386)"انرژی، محیط زیست و توسعه پایدار"، انتشارات علمی دانشگاه صنعتی شریف، جلد اول.