Presentation of Regression Model to Prediction of Pesticide in Iran

Subject Areas : مدیریت ، برنامه ریزی و آموزش محیط زیست

Maryam Sheykholeslamy Bourghani ¹ , Mohamad Rezvani ² , Seyed Mohamad Shobeiri ³

1 - Ph.D, Environmental Education, University of Payame Noor, Iran, Arak *(Corresponding Author)
2 - - Associat Prof. Department of Environment, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Payame Noor, Tehran, I.R of Iran.
3 - Professor, Department of Environmental Education,University of Payame Noor, Iran,Tehran.

Received: 2016-02-28 Accepted : 2016-12-07 Published : 2019-11-22

Keywords: pesticide, population, Regression model, Educational strategies,

Abstract :

Background and Objective: Environmental pollution and organisms health threat is a negative consequence of pesticides usage. The research hypothesis is that increasing pesticide usage due to population growth threatens the environment. Presenting a model for pesticide usage prediction and proposing educational strategies to reduce of pesticide usage is the goals of research. Method: At first trend of pesticide usage analyses according to comparative method. In the next stage Demographic Studies is done and population is predicted in 2026 vision. Then, with statistical modeling, a nonlinear regression model between population and pesticide usage is presented. By this model, pesticide usage in 2026 vision is predicted. Findings: Results show that pesticide usage in the period of 2005 to 2014 has been decreased. Calculated regression model between pesticide usage and population shows in 2026 vision ,that the country should has suitable environment, pesticide usage will be reduce as much as Thirty-fourth times lower than 2012. Discussion and Conclusion: Moving towards a suitable environment in terms of reducing of pesticide usage is positive and hypothesis is rejected. In order to enhance decreasing trend of pesticide usage educational strategies presented.

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