Studying the drivers affecting the future state of prosperity of Tehran metropolis

Subject Areas : Geography and Urban Planning

morteza mohammadkhani ¹ , Zainab Krake Abadi ² , abbas arghan ³

1 - PhD student, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Semnan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Semnan, Iran
2 - Associate Professor of Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Semnan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Semnan, Iran
3 - Associate Professor of Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Semnan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Semnan, Iran

Received: 2023-06-18 Accepted : 2023-06-26 Published : 2023-06-22

Keywords: Keywords: structural analysis, Prosperity, Structural Analysis, Tehran city, Urban Prosperity,

Abstract :

AbstractToday, urban prosperity has become one of the important issues in the field of urban development. In this regard, this article has tried to identify and cluster the driving forces affecting the future state of the prosperity of the metropolis of Tehran using the method of structural analysis. Theoretical data was prepared by document method and experimental data by survey method based on Delphi technique. The statistical population is 20 urban experts based on snowball sampling. 49 primary drivers have been processed in MICMAC software in 6 statistical categories and identified by structural interaction analysis method. The results of this research show that the general distribution pattern of the drivers studied, in terms of mutual effects analysis, indicates the state of an unstable environmental system in which the drivers of urban prosperity have a complex and intermediate state in terms of effectiveness and effectiveness. The focus of drivers is mostly in the cluster of independent factors. Poverty rate, Gini coefficient, employment rate, unemployment rate, accessibility to public open spaces, recreation per capita, space per capita, satisfaction with the quality of health care services, satisfaction with the security of the physical environment, the number of young unemployed, the employment rate in the informal sector, Cultural per capita, the amount of destruction and renovation of worn-out structures, waste generation per capita, civic participation were chosen as the most important driving forces for the future prosperity of Tehran metropolis.