Analysis of the effect of climate change on the agricultural exploitation system using the LARS-WG model in the southeastern part of the Iran

Subject Areas : Climatology

MAHSA FARZANEH ¹ , Azadeh Arbabi Sabzevari ² , Jamaluddin Daryabari ³ , Farideh Asadian ⁴

1 - Department of Natural Geography, Faculty of Humanities, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch, Tehran
2 - Associate Professor, Department of Geography. Islamic Azad university. Islamshahr Branch. Tehran. Iran
3 - Associate Professor, Department of Geography. Islamic Azad university. North Tehran Branch. Tehran. Iran
4 - Assistant Professor, Department of Geography. Islamic Azad University. Science and Research Unit. Tehran. Iran

Received: 2023-01-20 Accepted : 2023-03-01 Published : 2023-11-22

Keywords: Climate Change, zone of southeast Iran, agricultural utilization system,

Abstract :

This paper studied the climatological parameters in six synoptic stations in zone of southeast Iran (1987-2020) and during two periods of 2021-2040 and 2041-2060 using General circulation model (GCM). Accuracy of LARS-WG model for simulating climatological parameters was evaluated through MAE، RMSE، R2، NSE. Crop Water Requirement was defined through determining appropriate planting date and Length of growing season with temperature and growing degree days (GDD). Due to increase in max temperature, Climate change decrease the length of growth period in various phases as 1-10 days which it causes delay in cultivation date under climate change condition and shorten the length of planting season as 15-28 days. Correct management of some factors such as crop variety and optimized cropping pattern according to the regional climate and knowing the climate condition of current -future could mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on the growth and yield of agriculture crops