Investigation the effect of real exchange rate fluctuations on the import and export in Iran (1340-87)

Subject Areas : Applied Economics

نسرین رستمی ¹ ( مسئول مکاتبات )
مجید احمدلو ² ( ندارد )

Received: 2010-03-09 Accepted : 2010-07-06 Published : 2010-09-23

Keywords: real exchange rate, Shocks of Exchange rate, Non-oil export, H-P Filter,

Abstract :

Investigation the Relation between fluctuation of real exchange rate and macro economic variables such as export and import in irans economy as a joint national economy with global economy has a particulary importance. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the impact of foreign exchange rate fluctuations on the Iranian export and import. For investigate the impact of foreign exchange rate fluctuations, at the first phase by using hodrick  prescott filter the  fluctuations decomposed  into anticipated and unanticipated fluctuations  and negative and positive fluctuations. at  the next phase, they are regressed on export and import. The main findings of this research indicate that the exchange rate fluctuations have a non-symmetric impact on the export and import. in the way that the  anticipated and  unanticipated fluctuations, effect on export differently. Providing that anticipated fluctuations more than unanticipated fluctuations, fluctuation the export. Also these fluctuations affect on import differently. An the way that, unanticipated fluctuations in comparision with anticipated fluctuations, has mor efficacy on import.  the results of this research show that negative exchange rate fluctuations (dippreciaion) more than  positive exchange rate fluctuations, influence on export, but about import, it is on the facor of positive exchange rate.