A comparison of fundamental and historical beta in assessment of systematic risk Evidence from Tehran Security Exchange
Subject Areas : Financial Knowledge of Securities AnalysisHasan Ghalibaf Asl 1 , Sahar Salmalian 2 , محمود پاکباز کتج 3
1 - Associate prof of financial management, Financial Department, Faculty of management, Alzahra university, Tehran, Iran
2 - MA Student, Financial Department, Faculty of Financial Sciences, kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.
3 - Master of Financial Management, Department of Finance, Kharazmi University of Iran. (Corresponding Author)
Keywords: fundamental beta, historical beta, systematic risk, information accounting,
Abstract :
One of the most important aspects of investing is the risk of that investment. considering systematic and unsystematic risk as total risk, a part of risk that not deleted by diversification is called systematic risk. The purpose of this research is a comparison between two criteria of systematic risk assessment, the fundamental beta and historical beta. before that, the effect of financial statements information on the historical beta is investigated. For this purpose, the data of 33 companies that is selected by sifting method were collected during the period 1386-1395 using econometric methods of time series and pooled data. The results show that among the 7 accounting variables tested in this study (financial leverage, operating leverage, liquidity, fluctuation of earnings per share, percentage of dividend, size, and growth), 3 variables, namely, financial leverage, liquidity and size of firm affected The historical beta, and the historical beta, despite easiness in calculation, has a better performance than fundamental beta
* احمد پور، احمد و غلامی جمکرانی، رضا (۱۳۸۴) بررسی رابطه اطلاعات حسابداری و ریسک بازار شرکت های پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران، مجله علوم اجتماعی و انسانی دانشگاه شیراز، دوره بیست و دوم، شماره ۲، صص۲۰-۳۰.
* تهرانی، رضا (1395). «مدیریت مالی»، تهران: انتشارات نگاه دانش، چاپ چهاردهم.
* رحمانی, علی, پیکارجو, کامبیز, عزیزی, منصوره. (1393). رابطه بتای بازار سهام با متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی و اطلاعات حسابداری. دانش سرمایهگذاری, 3(10), 47-66.
* سعیدی, علی, رامشه, منیژه. (1390). عوامل تعیینکننده ریسک سیستماتیک سهام در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران. پژوهش های حسابداری مالی, 3(1), 125-142.
* سیدالنگی, سیدصابر و پرویز سعیدی. (1394). بررسی رابطه بین معیارهای حسابداری ریسک و ریسک بازار در شرکتهای پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران، کنفرانس ملی رویکردهای نوین در علوم مدیریت ، اقتصاد و حسابداری، مازندران، موسسه علمی تحقیقاتی کومه علم آوران دانش.
* Alexander, G. J., & Chervany, N. L. (1980). On the estimation and stability of beta. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 15(01), 123-137.
* Anson, M., Chambers, D., Black, K., & Kazemi, H. (2009). An Introduction to Core Topics in Alternative Investments CAIA Association, 2nd.
* Beaver, W., Kettler, P., & Scholes, M. (1970). The association between market determined and accounting determined risk measures. The Accounting Review, 45(4), 654-682.
* Beaver, W., Kettler, P., & Scholes, M. (1970). The association between market determined and accounting determined risk measures. The Accounting Review, 45(4), 654-682.
* Bender, J. (2007). To Beta or Not to Beta: A Comparison of Historical Versus Fundamental Betas for Hedging Market Risk. Browser Download This Paper.
* Bergmann, D. R., Corrar, L. J., Nakamura, W. T., & de Oliveira, M. A. (2007). Testando o CAPM no mercado de capitais brasileiro via GMM. Revista de Economia e Administração, 6(3).
* Brigham, E. F., & Daves, P. R. (2014). Intermediate Financial Management. Cengage Learning.
* Ehrhardt, M. C., & Brigham, E. F. (2016). Corporate finance: A focused approach. Cengage learning.
* Gonedes, N. J. (1973). Evidence on the information content of accounting numbers: Accounting-based and market-based estimates of systematic risk. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 8(03), 407-443.
* Groenewold, N., & Fraser, P. (1999). Time-varying estimates of CAPM betas. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 48(4), 531-539.
* Laveren, E., Durinck, E., de Ceuster, M., & Lybaert, N. (1997). Can accounting variables explain any beta? The empirical association between various betas and nine accounting variables in Belgian listed firms (No. 1997006).
* Lintner, J. (1965). The valuation of risk assets and the selection of risky investments in stock portfolios and capital budgets. The review of economics and statistics, 13-37.
* Penman, S. (2001). Financial statement analysis & security valuation.” McGraw-Hill Irwin, New York, NY.
* Perlin, M. S., & Ceretta, P. S. (2004). CAPM e o mercado brasileiro. In Anais do Congresso USP de Controladoria e Contabilidade, FEA/USP, São Paulo, SP, Brasil (Vol. 4).
* Rosenberg, B., & McKibben, W. (1973). The prediction of systematic and specific risk in common stocks. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 8(02), 317-333.
* Ruban, O., & Nagy, Z. (2013). Forty Years of Better Betas.
* Ryan, S. G. (1997). A survey of research relating accounting numbers to systematic equity risk, with implications for risk disclosure policy and future research. Accounting Horizons, 11(2), 82.
* Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. The journal of finance, 19(3), 425-442.
* Tukdeo, R. (2015). Analysis of financial statements.
_||_