Modeling and forecasting electricity production and Consumption in Iran

Subject Areas : Futurology

Mohammadreza Omidi ¹ , Nabi Omidi ² , Heshmatolah Asgari ³ , Meysam Jafari Eskandari ⁴

1 - PhD Student in Operation Research and system Engineering Islamic Azad University, South Tehran Branch, Tehran, Iran
2 - Mentor Department of Management, Payam Noor University, Iran
3 - Associate Professor Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Ilam University, Ilam, Iran, (Corresponding Author)
4 - Assistant Professor Department of Industrial Engineering, Payam Noor University, Iran

Received: 2015-10-08 Accepted : 2016-01-19 Published : 2016-05-21

Keywords: Electricity, Forecasting, Time series, Neural Network, gray system,

Abstract :

Due to the relatively high growth of energy consumption in the country, the future of research in the field of electrical energy as an important intermediate inputs in industrial production and as a final good And the necessary domestic and commercial sector, the requirements of law enforcement agencies in the field of production and consumption of electricity. Review and forecast electricity consumption and production managers a valuable factor in the power industry for strategic decision making. In this study, using time-series production and power consumption between the years 1967-2013 and deployment of predictive models Box Jenkins, artificial neural network and gray system in addition to the forecasts for the coming years using the standard average percentage of errors the accuracy of prediction methods were also studied villages. The results showed that the highest accuracy in the prediction of Box Jenkins methods and artificial neural network to predict the power consumption is the highest accuracy. The predicted values showed a decreasing ratio of production to consumption in Iran is relatively constant desire and The electricity production in Iran in 2019 to 318 843 million kW per hour and power consumption to be 260,645 million kWh, Which can be modified using modern methods of production and consumption patterns towards increased production to consumption.