A Process Framework for Identifying Uncertainties and Driving Forces (Case Study: Oil and Energy)

Subject Areas : Futurology

Farzin Minoo ¹ , Tahmineh Shawerdi ² , Seyyed Kazem Chavoshi ³

1 - PhD student of Future Studies, Research Institute for Humanities and Social Studies, Jihad University (Corresponding Author) [e-mail]
2 - Associate Professor of Humanities and Social Studies at Jahad University
3 - Assistant Professor of Management, Kharazmi University

Received: 2016-06-28 Accepted : 2016-10-14 Published : 2017-11-22

Keywords: uncertainties- driving forces-,

Abstract :

Nowdays, using a process framework for extracting uncertainties and driving forces specially in dynamic and turbulent environment is essental to perform a broad extent of futures studies like strategy design and assessment, scenario planning.  In this environment, managers and decision makers require methods for identifying factors that shape the future in the shortest possible time based on the results of previous studies. Traditional methods couldnot meet this requirement. In this paper, a process framework has been designed for extracting uncertainties and driving forces in a reasonable time based on the previous studies. In order to show the practically and usefulness of the proposed framework an empirical study of the oil and energy industry is demonstrated. The results show the effectiveness of the proposed model for extracting uncertainties and driving forces.