Impact of Climate Changes on the Livestock and Poultry Industry in Iran: Provincial Risk Analysis of Heat and Aridity Stresses

Subject Areas : Water resources management

Hadi Ramezani Etedali ¹ , Sakine Koohi ²

1 - Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.
2 - PhD, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.

Received: 2025-07-01 Accepted : 2025-09-18 Published : 2025-11-10

Keywords: Heat stress, De Martonne index, livestock, poultry, TOPSIS,

Abstract :

Background and Objectives: Climate changes, by intensifying heat stress and climatic aridity, pose significant challenges to the sustainability of the livestock and poultry industry in arid and semi-arid regions such as Iran. Dairy farms and poultry units, due to their dependence on water and feed resources and the high sensitivity of animals to elevated temperatures, are particularly vulnerable to these stresses. This study aims to assess the combined risk of heat stress and climatic aridity on dairy and poultry units across 31 provinces of Iran, utilizing the De Martonne Aridity Index (DMI) and the TOPSIS multi-criteria decision-making method, under CMIP6 climate scenarios, to provide valuable insights for policymaking and the development of adaptive strategies.

Methodology: The study utilized temperature and precipitation data from 31 synoptic stations for the baseline period (1997–2014) and downscaled outputs from the NEX-GDDP climate models (CNRM-CM6-1, CanESM5, GFDL-ESM4, HadGEM3-GC31-LL, MIROC6) under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for future periods (2025–2049, 2050–2074, 2075–2099). The De Martonne aridity index was calculated to assess climatic conditions, and the frequency of heat stress days was determined for dairy farms (temperatures above 26°C) and poultry farms (temperatures above 24°C). Provincial risk was ranked using the TOPSIS multi-criteria decision-making method, considering heat stress frequency, aridity index, and the number of production units. Model accuracy was evaluated using statistical metrics RMSE, MAE, MBE, and CC.

Findings: The results indicated that during the baseline period, southern provinces such as Khuzestan, Hormozgan, and Bushehr (with heat stress frequencies of 84.0%, 58.3%, and 51.9% in dairy farms, respectively) face high climatic risks, while northern provinces like Gilan and Ardabil experience the least stress. Poultry units, due to higher physiological sensitivity, face an average of 4.6 units higher heat stress compared to dairy farms. In future periods, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the frequency of heat stress will significantly increase across most provinces, including northwestern mountainous regions. Poultry units exhibit greater sensitivity to climate change compared to dairy farms, with some provinces, such as Hormozgan, projected to experience heat stress exceeding 75% in the distant future. TOPSIS-based ranking revealed that Khuzestan, Bushehr, and Sistan and Baluchestan for dairy farms, and Isfahan, Yazd, and Khorasan Razavi for poultry units, consistently fall into high to critical risk categories across all periods.

Conclusions: This study demonstrates that climate change, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, significantly increases climatic risks in Iran’s livestock and poultry industry, leading to reduced production, increased mortality, and decreased fertility in dairy and poultry units. The high concentration of production units in provinces like Khuzestan and Mazandaran, coupled with intensified heat stress and aridity, poses a serious threat to food security and economic sustainability in these sectors, highlighting the need for region-specific planning. It is recommended that adaptation strategies, such as developing heat-resistant breeds, improving cooling systems, and managing water resources, be prioritized by managers and policymakers. These findings can assist policymakers in formulating strategies to mitigate risks and enhance the resilience of the livestock and poultry industry.

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