Fuzzy Analysis of the Impact of Investors’ Behavioral Indicators on Corporate Dividend Policy

Subject Areas : Financial and Behavioral Researches in Accounting

Habibollah Nakhaei ¹ , Somaieh Sheikhali shahi ² , karim nahkaei ³

1 -
2 - دانشجوی دکترای حسابداری دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد قائنات ، خراسان جنوبی، ایران
3 - Department of Accounting, Birjand Branch, Islamic Azad University, Birjand, Iran

Received: 2025-04-17 Accepted : 2025-06-19 Published : 2025-06-21

Keywords: Dividend policy, cognitive and emotional biases, overconfidence, social influences, fuzzy Delphi method,

Abstract :

The aim of this study is to examine the impact of investor behavioral factors on dividend policy in companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. Using the fuzzy Delphi method, key behavioral factors influencing investment decisions were identified and analyzed. The findings indicate that cognitive and emotional biases, overconfidence and risk-taking, social and group influences, and financial management and decision-making are the most significant factors affecting dividend policy. The results reveal that overconfidence and high risk-taking have a negative impact on dividend policy, as managers with high confidence tend to allocate financial resources to high-risk investments rather than distributing dividends. Similarly, cognitive and emotional biases reduce the tendency to distribute dividends, leading to more conservative decision-making. Conversely, social and group influences, strong financial management, and rational decision-making positively impact dividend policy, as they enhance financial transparency and investor confidence. A comparison of this study's findings with prior domestic and international research suggests that behavioral factors, alongside financial criteria, play a crucial role in dividend policy decisions. Ultimately, this study recommends that companies adopt risk management strategies, improve financial transparency, and mitigate the effects of cognitive biases to optimize their dividend policies and avoid irrational decision-making.

Keywords: Dividend policy, cognitive and emotional biases, overconfidence, social influences, fuzzy Delphi method

References:
Dividend policy, cognitive and emotional biases, overconfidence, social influences, fuzzy Delphi method