Analyzing the Impact of Water Crisis on Food Security in Iran: A Simultaneous Equations Approach
salahedin nikpay
1
(
agricultural economics, islamic azad university, karaj, iran.
)
bita Rahimibadr
2
(
department of Agricultural economics, Karaj branch, islamic azad university, Karaj , Iran
)
niv nozari
3
(
استاد و هیات علمی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد کرج و دانشگاه هوستون آمریکا
)
shekoofeh rezaei
4
(
Department of soil sciences, Karaj Branch, Islamic Azad university, Karaj, Irann
)
Keywords: Food Security, Agriculture, Water Supply, Climate Change.,
Abstract :
The water crisis is one of the major challenges in Iran, with widespread impacts on agricultural production and food security. This study aims to analyze the interrelationships between the water crisis, agricultural production, and food security using a simultaneous equations model. The data used in this research includes time-series statistics collected from official sources over 1360-1400 periods. The model consists of three equations: the water crisis as a function of climate change, management policies, and agricultural production; agricultural production as a function of the water crisis, labor, capital, and energy consumption; and food security as a function of the food price index, agricultural imports, agricultural production, and the water crisis. The results reveal that the water crisis has a significant negative impact on agricultural production, which in turn indirectly affects food security. Additionally, the findings highlight the critical role of the food price index and agricultural imports in determining food security. The study emphasizes the importance of effective water management policies and improving productivity in agricultural production. This research demonstrates that the water crisis is not merely an environmental issue but also a significant socio-economic challenge, with far-reaching consequences through its impact on agricultural production. Therefore, integrated policy frameworks that simultaneously address water resource management, agricultural productivity, and food price control are essential for achieving sustainable food security. These findings provide valuable insights for better decision-making in the context of climate change and resource limitations
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