Modeling the discovery of changes and prediction of land use using optical sensors with Land Change modeler method (Study area: west of Tehran)

Subject Areas : Journal of Radar and Optical Remote Sensing and GIS

seyedaghil ebrahimi ¹ , Seyed Ali Almodaresi ² , Farhad Hamzeh ³

1 - Department of Geography, CT.C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 - Department of Remote sensing and Geography Information System , Y.C, Islamic Azad University, Yazd, Iran
3 - Department of Geography, CT.C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

Received: 2025-01-17 Accepted : 2025-07-17 Published : 2025-09-18

Keywords: West Tehran region, land use changes, LCM, NDVI, Landsat,

Abstract :

Objective: This research evaluated the western region of Tehran regarding changes in vegetation cover as well as land use.

Methods: In this research, Landsat satellite images from 2013 and 2020 were used. We employed the method of maximum likelihood  to classify land use into five categories: water, barren land, agriculture, vegetation, and urban areas. In the end, a map of changes for the year 2027 was prepared, and the conversion rates of different land uses were presented in a table.

Results: The results indicated that the use of urban areas in 2020 has increased compared to 2013, and it's forecasted that this trend will continue to rise in 2027. Agricultural land use decreased in 2020 compared to 2013, and it's expected to decline further in 2027. The use of vegetation cover also saw a reduction in 2020 relative to 2013, and this decrease is projected to carry on into 2027. Barren lands increased in 2020 compared to 2013, covering an area of 11,002,500 square meters, and it's anticipated that this will decrease by 2027. Lastly, the use of water bodies in 2020 decreased compared to 2013, and a further decline is expected by 2027.

Conclusion: In 2013, the urban area covered 14,178,600 square meters, which increased to 26,739,900 square meters in 2020, and is projected to reach 29,702,700 square meters by 2027. Agricultural land covered 28,044,900 square meters in 2013, decreased to 15,354,000 square meters in 2020, and is expected to reach 11,908,800 square meters by 2027. Vegetation land covered 3,198,600 square meters in 2013, dropped to 1,056,600 square meters in 2020, and is projected to expand to 5,954,400 square meters by 2027. Barren land covered 11,002,500 square meters in 2013, increased to 14,012,100 square meters in 2020, and is expected to decrease to 9,684,900 square meters by 2027. Water bodies covered 8,047,080 square meters in 2013, reduced to 1,233,900 square meters in 2020, and are projected to reach 1,145,700 square meters by 2027.

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