Studying the impact of climate change on hydroelectric energy production (Case study: Karun Dam 4)

Subject Areas : watere sciences

Ferdous Karimi alkoohi ¹ , Hossein Ghorbani Zadeh ² , محمود جزایری مقدس ³ , Mohsen Solimani Babarsad ⁴ , صایب خوشنواز ⁵

1 -
2 - Department of Water Sciences, Shushtar Branch, Islamic Azad University
3 - مدیر گروه ارشد سازه، مهندسی عمران، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد شوشتر،شوشتر، ایران
4 - عضو هیات علمی گروه آبیاری دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد شوشتر
5 - Department of Water Sciences ,Shushtar Branch,Islamic Azad University

Received: 2024-12-16 Accepted : 2024-09-22 Published : 2025-04-18

Keywords: Climate change, electric-hydro energy, exploitation of the reservoir, Karun Dam 4,

Abstract :

This study examines the performance of the Karun 4 Dam power plant, one of the country’s most crucial electricity generation facilities, under the impacts of climate change. The IHACRES conceptual model was employed to simulate the runoff process, and the DE algorithm was used to optimize hydropower energy production. The findings indicate a future temperature increase (2040-2061) by 1.95°C and 2.34°C under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively, compared to the baseline period (1984-2005). Moreover, the study reveals a reduction in inflow runoff to the reservoir by an average of 19% and 43% under the scenarios above.

Based on the results, the decrease in inflow to the reservoir in future periods is projected to reduce annual total electricity production by 9% compared to the plant's nominal capacity under the RCP 4.5 scenario and 18% under the RCP 8.5 scenario. This represents a significant impact of climate change on the operational efficiency of the Karun 4 hydropower plant. 

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