Evaluation and classification of quantitative and qualitative criteria effective in the occurrence of environmental hazards (Case study: Flood risk in Tehran metropolis)
Subject Areas : Environmental crisesAliakbar Karimipour 1 , صابر قاسمی 2 , Mohsen Dehghani 3 , حسین پرورش 4
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2 - گروه محیط زیست، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد بندرعباس، بندرعباس، ایران
3 - Department OF Environmental , Bandar Abbas Branch, University of Islamic Azad, Bandar Abbas, Iran
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Keywords: Urban flooding, Risk zoning, Land use, Slope percentage, Tehran city,
Abstract :
Introduction: Floods are known as the most common natural hazard. Urban floods occur for various reasons and cause numerous financial and human losses. The number of urban floods in Tehran has been increasing over the past 40 years. The aim of this research is to identify and classify the quantitative and qualitative criteria affecting the occurrence of floods and determine the risk zone.
Materials and Methods: To identify the criteria affecting the occurrence of floods, the library method and in-depth study were used, as well as referring to the opinions of experts (18-member Delphi panel). To ensure the correlation in the data matrix, a factor analysis test was used. The Fuzzy AHP method was used to prioritize the criteria. In addition, urban flood zoning was performed using SWMM software, and finally, the maps were superimposed and analyzed using Arc GIS software.
Results and Discussion: The criterion land use with a weight of 0.521 was assigned the highest importance, followed by the criterion runoff rate with a relative importance of 0.186. In addition, the criteria vegetation density with a weight of 0.103, slope with a weight of 0.097, and distance from stream and river with a weight of 0.091 were placed in the next priorities. In total, 25 sub-criteria identified. The final raster map was obtained in five classes (from very high risk to very low risk), which indicates the risk of flooding in different parts of Tehran. The highest percentage and area of risk belonged to the "low risk class" with 30.94 percent, and the lowest belonged to the "very high risk" class with 8.8 percent.
Conclusion: In the planning stage, various strategies are considered for flood management. These strategies can be classified into three general categories, Efforts to control and contain floods; Efforts to reduce vulnerability to floods; and Efforts to reduce exposure to floods. The first category is based on physical protection and generally includes structural methods. Some common methods in this case include: canal construction, upstream watershed management plans, lagoon construction, dredging of rivers, creation of new buffers, etc. In addition, the other two categories usually include the group of non-structural methods. These methods include vegetation protection, slope leveling, avoidance of land use in risk areas, and development of educational programs.
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