evaluation the effects of climate change on the inflow to the dam using hydrological modeling (case study: Qeshlaq Dam)
zeinab haghighi pak
1
(
Faculty of Civil Engineering, Architecture and Art, Iran University of Science and Research, Tehran, Iran
)
ahmad sharafati
2
(
Department of Civil Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
)
hamid kardan moghadam
3
(
Research Institute of Water Resources Studies and Research, Tehran, Iran
)
mahdi yousefinejad attari
4
(
Islamic Azad University, Bonab,Iran
)
Keywords: climate change, SWAT hydrological model, BCC and CAN climate models,
Abstract :
Due to the increasing temperature of the earth's surface and its consequences on the water balance components, hydrological modelers have used different approaches to investigate this issue. According to the new climatic data in the new reports, we first obtained the climatic data of precipitation and temperature through two BCC and CAN models under three climatic scenarios SSP126, SSP370 and SSP585 and then their results were the future runoff was investigated. the SWAT model was recalibrated daily using the SUFI2 algorithm from 1977 to 1981 and then validated from 1984 to 1987. The results showed that in the CAN model, there is an increase in the average annual temperature in the scenarios by 0.035, 0.055 and 0.06 percent respectively, and the amount of precipitation decreases to about 0.004, 0.01 and 0.005 percent . in the BCC model, the average annual temperature has decreased by 0.2, 0.22 and 0.22 percent. the precipitation has significant incremental changes of 2.94, 3.09 and 2.94%.The modeling results showed that the Nash-Satiliff coefficient was equal to 0.76. the microscaled results of BCC and CAN models were introduced to the recalibrated SWAT model from 2025 to 2100 using the linear scaling method in order to simulate runoff changes. The results showed that in the BCC model, under all climate scenarios, the amount of runoff has increased significantly by 0.44, 0.64 and 0.67%. But in the CAN model, the runoff changes have increased less by 0.54, 0.23 and 0.23 percent.
