Simulation of Zayandehroud dam reservoir input using IHACRES model with considering the fifth climate change report
Aliakbar Solgi
1
(
MSc Student, Department of Civil Engineering, Isfahan (Khorasgan) Branh, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran
)
Ali Khoshfetrat
2
(
Assistante Prof., Department of Civil Engineering, Isfahan (Khorasgan) Branh, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran
)
parisa pourpashang
3
(
Graduated student, Civil Engineering-Water and Hydraulic Structures, Faculty of Engineering University of Qom, Qom, Iran
)
Keywords: Simulation, fifth climate change report, Zayandehrood reservoir, IHACRES Model,
Abstract :
This research addresses the effects of climate change on water resources by generating a climate scenario for future years. Changes in the inflow to the Zayandehrood reservoir were examined, considering the baseline period (1981-2010) and the climate change period (2040-2069) using the outputs of the IPCC fifth model under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 considered as the most optimistic and pessimistic emission scenarios. The runoff during this period was simulated using a IHACRES approach. The research findings indicated Among the various models of the fifth report, the model EC-EARTH simulating precipitation and the model bcc-csm1-1-m simulating temperature demonstrated the best performance for the Zayandehrood basin compared to the observational period. Precipitation in the RCP 2.6 scenario (2040-2069) showed a fluctuation between -42.73% to 40% and in the RCP 8.5 scenario changed from -74.83% to 15.31% compared to the baseline period. Results demonstrated a 19.72% reduction in precipitation in the RCP 8.5 scenario compared to the RCP 2.6 scenario in the period (2069-2040). Additionally, temperature in the RCP 2.6 scenario (2040-2069) experienced changes between a -5.24°C to 9.61°C and in the RCP 8.5 changed from -2.51°C to 11.92°C compared to the baseline period. The long-term average temperature during the period (2069-2040) showed an increase of 12.78°C in the RCP 8.5 scenario compared to the RCP 2.6 scenario. The results indicated a 10.74% decrease in runoff in the RCP 2.6 scenario compared to the baseline period and a 37.43% decrease in the RCP 8.5 scenario in the climate change preiod.
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