Post Audit Analysis of a Groundwater Level Prediction with actual field data (Case Study: Haji Abad Aquifer)
Subject Areas : Subjects
Fardin Boustani
1
(Young researches and Elite Club, Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran)
Keywords: Numerical Model, Post Audit, Ground Water, Conceptual Model Uncertainty,
Abstract :
Post Audit is a subsequent review of numerical model’s prediction. In this method, the model’s predictions are compared with actual field data, at least a few years after prediction. This investigation will prepare valuable information in order to use numerical model for predicting input stress to aquifer and can be used for improving model ability in prediction. In this study we assessment the model prediction of Haji Abad Aquifer. Haji Abad Aquifer is sub Basin of Kol River and located in the south part of Haji Abad study area and 160 distances from BandarAbas City. Numerical model of this aquifer run in unsteady situation for 2007-2008 water year. This model was used for predicting water level in a 5-year period (2010-2015). Due to the existence of real data from ground water level in 2015- 2011, the result of model prediction compared with real ground water data. The result show, on average 1.35 meters error occurred in prediction. The most important factor in this error is predicting model for wet situation while in the reality the study area faced with drought condition. Other effective factors in this error are bad design of conceptual model and ignoring conceptual model uncertainty in numerical model simulation.
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