Red Meat Demand Forecasting in Iran

Subject Areas : Agricultural Economics Research

R. Moghaddasi ¹ (دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات تهران)
R. Mohsenpour ² (دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات تهران)

Received: 2015-12-17 Accepted : 2015-12-17 Published : 2012-06-21

Keywords: ARMA, Forecasting, ARIMAX, Red meat. Demand,

Abstract :

Meat is an important source of animal protein in Iranian diet. Therefore, accurate estimate of meat demand for future, could lead to more realistic planning of import. This paper aims to evaluate two common methods which applied in forecasting economic variables, namely ARIMA and ARIMAX to predict red meat demand using quarterly data over period of 1988-2005. Results showed better performance of ARIMAX method based on conventional criteria

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