Effects of climate change on available water resources and cropping pattern in Jiroft plain of Kerman province

Afshin Taghizadeh ¹ ( Ph.D student of agricultural economics at Islamic Azad University, Qaemshahr Branch )
Yaser Feizabadi ² ( , Assistant Professor of Agriculture Economics, Islamic Azad University, Qaemshahr )
mostafa Goudarzi ³ ( Assistant Professor at Islamic Azad University, Qaemshahr Branch )

Submited date : 2023-03-06 Accepted date : 2024-08-21

Keywords: Climate Change, panel data, Groundwater, Planning, Cropping Pattern,

Abstract :

In this study, an attempt was made to determine the effects of changes in weather conditions under three climate scenarios on the groundwater level in the Jiroft-Kerman plain, and to identify changes in the cultivation pattern in this region. The effectiveness of the underground water resources of Jiroft Plain in relation to temperature and precipitation we used fixed effects model in the panel data model. Then in order to evaluate the effects of climate change on the crop pattern the PMP model was used. The results showed that under all three climate scenarios, the underground water level in this plain decreases. The largest reduction in available groundwater compared to the baseline is estimated in the third climate scenario. Changes in underground water resources in three climate scenarios in this study were obtained as -8.829, -8.857 and -11.500 mcm respectively. Finally, the results of the PMP showed that the largest decrease in the cultivated area was predicted in the third scenario and the amount of reduction in gross profit in this plain is equal to 28.79%