Investigating the impact of the exchange rate and the global financial crisis and international trade on the unemployment rate in Iran during periods of recession and economic prosperity
The impact of the exchange rate and the global financial crisis and international trade on the unemployment rate in Iran during periods of recession and economic prosperity
Subject Areas : Financial Knowledge of Securities Analysis
Safiyeh Mehrinejhad 1 , Masoud ahmadvand 2
1 - Department of Financial Engineering, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran (corresponding author)
2 - PhD student in financial engineering, science and research department, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
Keywords: Unemployment, hysteresis test, recession and economic boom, Markov switching regime change model,
Abstract :
The present study examines the impact of the exchange rate and the global financial crisis and international trade on the unemployment rate in Iran during periods of recession and economic prosperity during the period of 1363-1401. The research method of this article is from the point of view of practical purpose and from the point of view of descriptive analytical nature. In order to collect information, the data of the World Bank was used, and the estimation of the model was done using the Markov regime change method. According to the model estimation results; financial crises have a negative effect on employment during recession by affecting foreign exchange earnings and commercial freedom. The impact of financial crises and shocks in Iran's economy mostly depends on the studied inflationary situation; In such a way that with the increase in inflation and recession, the effect of financial crisis, trade and production gap on employment is reduced and even at very high levels of inflation and financial crises can have a negative effect on employment, which the results show to confirm this.
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