Evaluation of Adaptation Paths to Climate Change in the Karun 3 Basin

Subject Areas : Watershed management and water extraction

Erisa Jahangiri ¹ , Baharak Motamedvaziri ² , Hadi Kiadaliri ³

1 - Department of Nature Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
2 - Department of Nature Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
3 - Department of Environment and Forest Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.

Received: 2024-05-24 Accepted : 2024-11-02 Published : 2024-12-11

Keywords: Climate change, WEAP model, Robust decision making, Runoff, Karun,

Abstract :

Background and Aim: Adaptive planning and water allocation in the conditions of climate change is facing deep challenges due to various uncertainties. In this situation, decisions should be made that are more stable and maintain their function in different climatic scenarios. This study was carried out with the aim of planning agricultural adaptation measures in the conditions of climatic uncertainty in the Karun 3 watershed using the robust decision-making (RDM) approach. To achieve this goal, GCM models under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and WEAP model were used to simulate the current situation of water resources and uses in the basin. Runoff and cultivated area were considered as parameters with uncertainty.

Method: To realize the research goal, the WEAP model was used to simulate the current situation of the basin's water resources and uses. Because under the effect of climate change, the precipitation and temperature parameters of the area will undergo changes in the future from three models - EC-EARTH, CNRM-CM5 and GFDL-ESM2M under two scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to investigate the amount of temperature changes and future period precipitation was used. Also, in this research, the IHACRES rainfall-runoff model was used to simulate the runoff of the Karun River in the future. Measures such as 10% increase in irrigation efficiency (S1) and changing the cultivation pattern (S2) were considered as effective adaptation measures in the agricultural sector. Finally, by using the robust decision-making approach (RDM), the strength of the presented strategies under the existing uncertainties for the future period was examined and evaluated. Based on two approaches, RDM minimizes the effect of uncertainty. The Regret Method, which is obtained by minimizing the amount of deviations in performance caused by uncertainty compared to the ideal state, and the robustness approach or the satisfactory boundary, which calculates the fraction of scenarios that meet the designed criteria.

Results: The results of runoff simulation for the future period (2055-2030) show that the amount of Karun river runoff will decrease by 22-8% in different months compared to the base period. Evaluation of the simulation results of the WEAP model in the current situation, the drinking water needs are almost completely provided in most of the sectors and only in the A8 sectors, which is the study area of 2301 (Khorramshahr) and A6 (the study areas of Lali and Indica). ) are facing water shortage. Also, the results showed that there is no shortage in the industry sector. Meanwhile, sectors A1, A2 and A3 are facing a shortage of water resources in the agricultural sector. The results show that due to the deficiencies in the existing conditions, the Behesht Abad watershed will not have the necessary potential to transfer water to the volume of 580 million cubic meters per year through the Behesht Abad tunnel to the Zayandeh Rood watershed. Also, the results showed that the satisfaction index of strategy 2 and strategy 1 is 0.78 and 0.65, respectively. Also, the comparison of the results of the regret index shows that strategy 2 is stronger than strategy 1.

Conclusion: Finally, based on the research approach and the definition of stable decision-making, the results showed that the strategy of changing the cultivation pattern can be put on the agenda as a stable strategy, so that it can work in a wide range of uncertainty and climate scenarios. Maintain within the current status of the basin. The main strength of this study is its systematic methodology, which helps to make more informed decisions and design comprehensive adaptive programs. It can also be applicable to other basins by considering different goals and indicators. However, future studies on climate change uncertainties and socio-economic evaluation of adaptation measures are other areas that could improve the analyses.

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