Predicting the impacts of climate change on theMesopotamian Spiny-tailed Lizard (Saara loricata): Using maximum entropy algorithm and Bioclim
Subject Areas : Journal of Animal Biologyانوشه کفاش 1 , محمد کابلی 2 , گونتا کهلر 3
1 - گروه محیط زیست دانشگاه تهران، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، تهران، ایران
2 - گروه محیط زیست دانشگاه تهران، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، تهران، ایران
3 - موزه تنوع زیستی Senckenberg، فرانکفورت، آلمان
Keywords: Climate Change, MaxEnt, Habitat suitability, Bioclim, Mesopotamian Spiny-tailed Lizard,
Abstract :
Climate change is a major concern for the management and conservation of biodiversity. The last decade has provided compelling evidence that the impacts of climate change on the world’s biodiversity are likely to be significant. Very little is known about the effects of climate change on the Iranian Herpetofauna. In this study we investigated the effects of climate change on Mesopotamian Spiny-tailed Lizard (Saara loricata) in Iran. We developed a habitat suitability model for this species in Iran using maximum entropy algorithm and 19 current and future (2080) bioclimatic variables. The performance of the model was assessed using the Area Under the Curve (AUC) metric of Receiving Operator Characteristic (ROC) curve. Our result shows an increase in suitable habitats for the species under the predicted climate change.. We also developed a habitat suitability model for this species in Iran with the Bioclim, using current (2000) and future (2080) bioclimatic variables. Our results indicate that despite an increase of the area with high suitability for the species, overall suitable habitats will decline under the expected climate change. These results are contrary to results of maximum entropy algorithm.
