Estimating Army Curve in Two Oil Exporter and Importer Countries: Iran and South Korea 1990 – 2015
Subject Areas : Bi-quarterly Journal of development economics and planning
1 - Assistant professor, Department of Economics, khomeinishahr Branch, Islamic Azad University, Khomeinishahr, Isfahan, Iran
Keywords: Economic Growth, Public Expenditure, Armey Curve,
Abstract :
Government activities in an economic system play an important role in the country's economic growth and development, but increasing the volume of these activities to certain thresholds has a positive effect on economic growth, and from that threshold, increasing in the volume of government activities not only has no positive effect on economic growth, But these activities are the main obstacles to growth. The explanation for the non-linear effects of government expenditures on economic growth is known as the Army Curve. In this study, the relationship between government expenditures and economic growth has been investigated by using Army curve in Iran and South Korea (1990-2015) and with using autoregressive distributed lag model. The results show a positive nonlinear relationship between government expenditures and economic growth in both Iran and South Korea. With the negative sign of the power factor of the second government expenditure, the existence of a logistic curve in the long run is evident for both oil exporter and importer country: Iran and South Korean
اخباری، محمد و زیدی زاده، سمیرا، 1390 ، "برآورد اندازه بهینه دولت در اقتصاد ایران با استفاده از تخمین منحنی آرمی"، فصلنامه روند پژوهشهای اقتصادی، 19، ٦٠، 112-81.
پناهی، حسین و رفاعی، رامیار،1391، "تاثیر اندازه دولت بر رشد اقتصادی در ایران"، فصلنامه مدل سازی اقتصادی، 6، 18، 138-123 .
پیرایی، خسرو و نوروزی،های ده، ۱۳۹۱ ،"آزمون رابطه به شکل منحنی آرمی میان اندازه دولت و رشد اقتصادی در ایران: روش رگرسیون آستانه"، فصلنامه پژوهشهای اقتصادی، 11، 2، 22-1.
دژپسند، فرهاد و گودرزی، حسین، 1389، " اندازه دولت و رشد اقتصادی در ایران؛ روش رگرسیون آستانه ای"، پژوهشهای اقتصادی ایران،14، 42، 189-207.
فلاحی، فیروز، منتظری شورکچالی، جلال، 1393، "اندازه دولت و رشد اقتصادی در ایران: آزمون وجود منحنی آرمی با استفاده از مدل رگرسیون انتقال ملایم"، فصلنامه پژوهشها و سیاستهای اقتصادی، 22، 69، 150-131.
قلیزاده، علی اکبر، 1383، "رویکردی برای تعیین اندازه بهینه دولت (بر مبنای بودجه عمومی دولت)"، فصلنامه برنامه ریزی و بودجه، 9، 2، 57-19.
کمیجانی، اکبر و نظری، روحالله، 1388، "تأثیر اندازه دولت بر رشد اقتصادی در ایران"، فصلنامه پژوهشهای اقتصادی، سال نهم، 3، 28-1
Akhbari, M. Zeidizade, S,2011, “Estimation of the Optimal Size of Government in Iran By Utilising the Armey Curve”, Quarterly Journal of Trend of Economic Research, Volume 19, No 60, 81-112.(in Persian)
Altunc, O.Faruk, Aydin Celil, 2013, "The Relationship between Optimal Size of Government and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Turkey Romania and Bulgaria", Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 92, 66 – 75.
Armey, R. (1995), The Freedom Revolution, Regnery Publishing Co., Washington, C.
Barro, R. J. 1989. "A Cross-Country Study of Growth, Saving and Government". NBER Working Paper No. 2855.
Barro, R. J. 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth". The Journal of Political Economy, 98 (5), 103-125.
Chen, S. and Lee, C. 2005. Government Size and Economic Growth in Taiwan: A Threshold Regression Approach", Jornal of Policy Modeling. 27.1051-1066.
Dezhpasand, F. and Goudarzi, H. 2010, “Government Size and Economic Growth in Iran: A Threshold Regression Approach”. Iranian Journal of Economic Research. 14, 42, 189-207. (in Persian)
Fallahi, F. and Montazeri Shoorkchali, J. 2014. “Government Size and Economic Growth in Iran: A Smooth Transition Approach”, Quarterly Journal of Economic Research and Policies. 22, 69, 131-150. .(in Persian)
Gholizadeh, A. 2004, “An Approach for Determining Optimum Size of Government (on the Basis of Governments Public Budget)”. The Journal of Planning and Budgeting. 9, 2, 19-57. (in Persian)
Gregoriou, A ,.Ghosh, S, 2009, "Government size and Economics Convergence". International Public Finance.47.30-56.
Komijani, A and Nazari, N, 2009, “Effect of Government Size on the Economic Growth in Iran”, The Economic Research, 9, 3, 1-28. (in Persian)
Magazzino,c and Francesco,F. 2010. Optimal Size of Government and Economic Growth in Eu-27. MPRA Paper. No. 26669 .
Panahi, H. and Refaee, R, 2012, “The Effect of Government Size on Economic Growth by Emphasizing on Armey Curve: A Case Study in Iran”, Quartery Journal of Economical Modeling. 6, 18, 123-138.(in Persian)
Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y. & Smith R. J. (2001), Bound Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Long Run Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics. Special Issue, 16, 289-326.
Piraee, Kh. And Noroozi, H. 2012, “Testing the Armey Curve Relationship between Government Size and Economic Growth in Iran A threshold Regression Approach” , The Economic Research, 12, 2, 1-22.(in Persian)
Rahn R., Fox H, 1996,"What Is the Optimum Size of Government", Vernon K. Krieble Foundation.
Roy, A. G, 2009, "Evidence on Economic Growth and Government Size", Applied Economics, 41, 607–614.
Vedder, R. & L. Gallaway , 1998, "Government Size and Economic Growth", Joint Economic Committee, Available at www.house.gov/jec/.
Yamamura, Eiji, 2010, "Decomposition of the effect of government size on growth". MPRA Paper .No. 23972.