Effect of Oil Price on Food Price Index in IRAN under Uncertainty Condition
Subject Areas : Bi-quarterly Journal of development economics and planning
Abolghasem Golkhandan
1
(Ph.D. Student, Faculty of Economics and Administration, University of Lorestan, Khoram Abad, Iran)
Keywords: Oil Price, uncertainty, Food Price, Expected Utility, Nonlinear Least Squares,
Abstract :
The process of increases global oil and food prices in recent years is concerned economists to examine the relationship between these variables. The main objective of this paper is to determine the impact of oil price on food prices index during the period 1990-2011 under uncertainty condition. For this purpose, first based on Alghalit (2010) empirical study and microeconomic foundations, the model has been designed between oil and food prices under uncertainty condition for Iranian Economy. Then, coefficients of this model are estimated by using the nonlinear least squares (NLS) econometric approach. The results indicated a positive but few impact of expected crude oil prices and it's uncertainty on the expected food price index that can be result the payment of government subsidies to the energy sector. So that with increase (decrease) 10 units (dollar) in the expected price of crude oil and its volatility, increases (decreases) the expected food price index respectively about 1.4 and 0.8 unit. According to the other results, with increase in supply and export of crude oil, expected food prices are decrease.
اعظم‌زاده شورکی، مهدی و خلیلیان، صادق (1389). "بررسی اثر سیاست پولی بر قیمت غذا در ایران". مجله اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، شماره 24، 184-177.
پیش‌بهار، اسماعیل؛ قهرمان‌زاده، محمد و عارف‌عشقی، طراوت (1392). "بررسی تأثیر عبور نرخ ارز به قیمت مواد غذایی در ایران". مجله اقتصاد کشاورزی، شماره4، 21-1.
جاودان، ابراهیم؛ راحلی، حسین و نقدی، رشید (1394). "بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر قیمت مواد غذایی در ایران با تأکید بر تکانه‌های نفتی". مجله تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی، شماره 2، 195-179.
صمدی، علی‌حسین و بهپور، سجاد (1392). "بررسی تأثیر نوسانات قیمت نفت بر شاخص مواد غذایی در ایران". فصلنامه پژوهش‌های اقتصادی کاربردی، شماره 2، 106-89.
مقدسی، رضا؛ شرافتمند، حبیب و باغستانی، علی‌اکبر (1389). "بررسی تأثیر شوک‌های بهره‌وری و شکاف تولید بر قیمت مواد غذایی در ایران". مجله اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، شماره 24، 517-509.
مهرآرا، محسن و نیکویی‌اسکویی، کامران (1385). "تکانه‌های نفتی و اثرات پویای آن بر متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی". فصلنامه پژوهشنامه اقتصادی، شماره 40، 32-1.
هزاره، رضا؛ شاهنوشی، ناصر؛ محمدی، حسین و سقاییان، مهدی (1394). "تحلیل نقش متغیرهای اقتصادی بر قیمت مواد غذایی درکشورهای منتخب صادرکننده و واردکننده نفت". مجله اقتصاد کشاورزی، شماره 4، 96-75.
Akpan, E. O. (2009). “Oil Resource Management and Food Insecurity in Nigeria”. Paper Prepared for Presentation at the European Report on Development (ERD), Conference in Accra, Ghana, 21st-23rd May.
Alghalith, M. (2008). “Estimation and Econometric Tests under Price and Output Uncertainty”. Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, 23, 531–536.
Alghalith, M. (2010). “The Interaction between Food Prices and Oil Prices”. Energy Economics, 32, 1520-1522.
Alom, F., Wind, B. & Hu, B. (2011). “Spillover Effects of World Oil Prices on Food Prices: Evidence for Asia and Pacific Countries”. Conference, August 25-26, 2011, Nelson, New Zealand 115346, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, 1-28.
Avalos, F. (2014). “Do Oil Prices Drive Food Prices? The Tale of a Structural Break”. Journal of International Money and Finance. 42, 253-271.
Baffes, J. (2007). “Oil Spills on Other Commodities”. Resources Policy, 32, 126-134.
Bakht, M. & Wurzburg, K. (2013). “Co-integration of Oil and Commodity Prices: A Comprehensive Approach”. Working Paper, 1-24.
Chand, R. (2008). “Rising Global Food Prices: Implications for India”. International Workshop: Agricultural Trade Liberalisation and Domestic Market Reforms in Indian Agriculture .
Chavas, J. P. & Holt, M. (1996). “Economic Behavior under Uncertainty: a Joint Analysis of Risk and Technology”. Review of Economics and Statistics, 51, 329–335.
Deaton, A. & Laroque, G. (1996). “Competitive Sorage and Commodity Price Dynamics”. Journal of Political Economy, 104, 896-923.
Du, X., Yu, C. L. & Hayes, D. J. (2010). “Speculation and Volatility Spillover in the Crude Oil and Agricultural Commodity Markets: A Bayesian Analysis”. Energy Economics, 33, 497-503.
Esmaeili, A. & Shokoohi, Z. (2010). “Assessing the Effect of Oil Price on World Food Prices: Application of Principal Components Analysis”. Energy Policy, 32, 1022-1025.
Hanson, K., Robinson, S. & Schluter, G. (1993). “Sectoral Effects of a World Oil Price Shock: Economy Wide Linkage to the Agricultural Sector”. Journal of Agriculture and Resource Economics, 18, 96-116.
Headey, D. & Fan, S. (2008). “Anatomy of a Crisis: The Causes and Consequences of Surging Food Prices”. Agricultural Economics, 39, 375-391.
Ibrahim, M. H. (2015). “Oil and Food Prices in Malaysia: A Nonlinear ARDL Analysis”. Agricultural and Food Economics, 3(2), 1-14.
Kaltilioglu, M. & Soytas, U. (2009). “Price Transmition between World Food”. Agricultural Row Material and Oil Prices, GBATA Conference Proceeding, 596-603.
Nazlioglu, S. & Soytas. U. (2010). “World Oil Prices and Agricultural Commodity Prices: Evidence from Emerging Market”. Energy Economics, 33, 488-496.
Udoh, E. & Egwaikhide, F. (2012). “Does International Oil Price Volatility Complement Domestic Food Price Instability in Nigeria?: An Empirical Enquiry”. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 4, 235-246.
Yang, H., Zhou, Y. & Liu, J. (2009). “Land and Water Requirements of Biofuel and Implications for Food Supply and Environment in China”. Energy Policy, 37, 1876-1885.
_||_
