Forecasting the exchange rate of euro to dollar with the artificial neural network technique

Subject Areas : Financial engineering

shafagh sharif moghadam ¹ , seyyed Zabihollah Hashemi ²

1 - Graduated master of Business Administration, Business Administration department, faculty of management, Islamic Azad University Central Tehran Branch,Tehran,Iran
2 - Assistant Professor at industrial management, Tehran central branch, Islamic azad university, Tehran, Iran

Received: 2018-03-27 Accepted : 2018-05-29 Published : 2018-12-22

Keywords: Neural network, Technical Analysis, Exchange Rate Forecast,

Abstract :

Exchange rate prediction is an important economic variable of interest to the economic actors. Technical approach is one of the commonly used approaches to forecasting, which uses the past behavior of the exchange rate for prediction. However, given the chaotic and non-linear structure of financial markets, the market forecasting cannot be done using a certain and simple method obtained by combining different technical tools and more sophisticated methods are required. In recent decades, neural networks have been employed as one of the most widely used methods in classification, pattern recognition and prediction of complex time series. In this research, a multilevel neural network model was provided to predict the euro-dollar exchange rate, which predicts the price on the next day with an appropriate accuracy by utilizing the data and variables derived from the technical analysis. The results demonstrated the proper function of this method versus other conventional methods of technical analysis and neural network.