Presenting a market direction prediction model for gold coin trades in Iran’s Commodity Exchange market using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) algorithm

Subject Areas : Financial engineering

Soheil Zoghi ¹ , Reza Raei ² , Saeed Falahpor ³

1 - Department of Financial Management and Insurance, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2 - Department of Financial Management and Insurance, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
3 - Department of Financial Management and Insurance, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

Received: 2021-12-28 Accepted : 2022-02-19 Published : 2022-12-22

Keywords: technical indicators, Gold market, Time Series Prediction, market direction prediction, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM),

Abstract :

In recent years, deep learning neural networks have been recognized as powerful tools for solving complex problems. Deep learning is a subfield of artificial intelligence in which complex problems with numerous parameters and inputs are modeled based on a set of algorithms. In this research, a new framework of deep learning is presented. Using wavelet transform, stacked auto-encoders, and the Long Short-Term Memory or LSTM, we predict the market direction in the future contracts of gold coins of Iran's Commodity Exchange market. The input data is first denoised using the wavelet transformer in the proposed method. Then, using the stacked auto-encoder, the indicators influencing the market direction are identified. Ultimately, these indicators are given as input to the LSTM architecture to predict the market direction. Proposing several new technical indicators to increase the accuracy of the proposed model, adjusting the parameters of the utilized algorithms, including LSTM, for this problem, and suggesting a trading strategy to achieve appropriate profitability are among the contributions of the present study. Investigations reveal that the proposed method outperforms other approaches and achieves higher accuracy and efficiency.