Development a new ensemble learning approach for stock portfolio selection using multiclass SVM and genetic algorithm

Subject Areas : Financial engineering

nasrin  bagheri mazraeh ¹ (Phd student of Department of financial management , science and research branch, Islamic Azad university, Tehran, Iran)
amir  Daneshvar ² (Assistant Professor of Department of information technology management, electronic branch, Azad university, Tehran, Iran)
mehdi  madanchi zaj ³ (Assistant Professor of Department of Financial Management, Electronic branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran)

Received: 2021-09-16 Accepted : 2021-10-21 Published : 2022-03-21

Keywords: Genetic Algorithm, Portfolio optimization, Machine Learning, Ensemble Learning,

Abstract :

The volume and speed of transactions in financial markets has increased significantly and has undergone extensive changes nowadays. Facing with increasing, decreasing or fluctuating trends in the stock market, determining the right trading strategy is very important. Therefore, complex meta-heuristic models are used for choosing a suitable strategy. In this research, an attempt is made to develop a new method of selecting and optimizing the stock portfolio based on the ensemble learning algorithm and genetics in order to select the best trading strategy to achieve greater returns and less risk. A combination of a six-class support vector machine (SVM) algorithm is used to predict returns and receive a buying signal; besides, a dynamic genetic algorithm is used to optimize trading rules. In this study, collective learning methods including Bagging, one of the algorithms based on Ensemble Learning, have been used to improve the accuracy of classification of returns. Data related to each share and fundamental variables in a daily time interval between years 1390 to 1399 is used as training and test data. The obtained results, comparing to traditional methods, are promising.