The role of exchange rate fluctuations on private sector investment in housing in Tehran using the Markov switching regime model

Subject Areas : business management

Aliakbar Mehrabian ¹ , yazdan gudarzi farahani ²

1 - Department of Economics, Science and Research branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 - Department of Economic Sciences, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Qom, Qom, Iran

Received: 2021-08-22 Accepted : 2021-09-20 Published : 2022-03-21

Keywords: investment, exchange rate, Instability, Housing Sector, Markov switching regime model,

Abstract :

The purpose of this article was to investigate the role of exchange rate fluctuations on private sector investment in housing in Tehran. For this purpose, statistical data for the period 1970-2020 based on the frequency of annual data and the Markov switching regime approach have been used. In general, the developments in the housing sector play an essential role in intensifying the fluctuations of prosperity and stagnation of economic activities. Fluctuations in the return on other assets, such as currency, will affect demand for housing. When a monetary shock occurs, it changes the opportunity cost of maintaining durable goods, including housing, by changing interest rates, and this shock is due in part to the demand for housing resulting from the demand for services. The result of this property affects the housing. The results of this study showed that the exchange rate in the two currency regimes of high and low fluctuations has affected the investment of the private sector in housing in Tehran. The results also showed that the stability of the regime with high fluctuations in exchange rate volatility is greater than the stability of the regime with low fluctuations in exchange rate volatility.