مدل سازی جریان انرژی و ارزیابی اقتصادی تولید هندوانه در استان فارس در ایران

Subject Areas : Farming Systems

Sajad Rostami ¹ , Maryam Lotfalian ² , Bahram Hosseinzadeh ³ , مهدی قاسمی ورنامخستی ⁴

1 - Assistant Professor, Department of Mechanics of Biosystem Shahrekord University
2 - Department of Mechanics of Biosystem Shahrekord University
3 - Department of mechanics of biosystem engineering, Shahrekord University
4 - Assistant Professor, Department of Mechanics of Biosystem Shahrekord University

Received: 2016-10-25 Accepted : 2017-11-12 Published : 2018-03-01

Keywords: شبکه‌های عصبی مصنوعی, حفاظتی, راندمان مصرف انرژی, مکانیزه,

Abstract :

این مطالعه با هدف بررسی بهره‌وری انرژی مصرفی و آنالیز اقتصادی روش‌های مختلف کشت هندوانه در استان فارس، کشور ایران انجام شد. روش‌های تولید هندوانه به پنج گروه تقسیم شدند. این گروه‌ها عبارت بودند از: خاکورزی مرسوم (گروه 1)، کشاورزی حفاظتی (گروه 2)، پاشش کود مکانیزه (گروه 3)، کاشت نیمه مکانیزه (گروه 4) و کاشت تمام مکانیزه (گروه 5). داده‌ها از 317 نفر از تولید کننده‌های هندوانه از مناطق مختلف استان به صورت چهره به چهره جمع‌آوری شد. از شبکه‌های عصبی مصنوعی چند لایه برای مدل‌سازی جریان انرژی تولید هندوانه استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که بیشترین مصرف انرژی متعلق به روش کاشت تمام مکانیزه با ارزش MJ.ha-172/81317 و با بهره‌وری kg.ha-1 61/0 و کارایی مصرف انرژی 17/1 بوده است. نتایج خوشه‌بندی با سه ورودی (منابع انسانی، ماشین‌آلات و سوخت دیزل) نشان داد که تفاوت بین گروه‌های 2 و 4 بیشتر از گروه‌های دیگر است. کمترین مصرف انرژی نیز برای گروه کشاورزی حفاظتی به میزان MJ.ha-1 86/78163 ، با بهره‌وری kg.ha-1 64/0 و راندمان انرژی 22/1 برآورد شد. نتایج مدل‌سازی انرژی نشان داد که مدل ANN با ساختار 1-10-9 برای مدل‌سازی انرژی جریان انرژی این سیستم است. به طور کلی، نتیجه‌گیری شد که مدل‌های شبکه عصبی مصنوعی می­تواند برای پیش‌بینی جریان‌های انرژی هندوانه استفاده شود. از منظر اقتصادی نیز کمترین سود خالص متعلق به روش کاشت کاملاً سنتی به میزان 82784 هزار ریال در هکتار و بیشترین آن نیز متعلق به گروه کاشت تمام مکانیزه به میزان 87092 هزار ریال در هکتار محاسبه شد.

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