بررسی الگوهای تخصص‌گرایی در تجارت و بهره‌وری صادرات در کشورهای عضو اوپک با تاکید بر جایگاه ایران
الموضوعات :
محسن پورعبادالهان کویچ
1
(استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه تبریز)
نسیم مهین اصلانی‌نیا
2
(دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه تبریز)
فخری سادات محسنی زنوزی
3
(دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه تبریز)
الکلمات المفتاحية: ایران, تخصص‌گرایی در تجارت, بهره‌وری صادرات, اوپک,
ملخص المقالة :
روند همگرایی الگوی تجاری کشورها به الگوی تجاری جهانی با استفاده از شاخص های مختلفی مانند تخصص گرایی در تجارت ارزیابی می شود. تخصص گرایی در تجارت که خود توسط شاخص‌های مختلفی همچون عدم تجانس تجاری، تمرکز صادرات و تخصص درون صنعتی اندازه گیری می‌شود، دربرگیرنده دلالت‌های ضمنی بهره وری صادرات می‌باشد. مطالعه حاضر ابتدا به محاسبه شاخص های فوق برای کشورهای عضو اوپک طی دوره زمانی 2006-1995 پرداخته و سپس با بررسی وضعیت هر یک از این شاخص ها، درصدد شناسایی الگوی تجاری این کشورها بر می آید. نتایج حاصل از محاسبه و تحلیل شاخص ها نشان می دهد که با وجود حرکت کشورهای عضو اوپک به سمت همگرایی با تجارت جهانی و تعدیل الگوی تجاری خود در راستای الگوی تجارت جهانی، تمرکز این کشورها بیشتر بر صادرات گروه های کالایی دارای بهره وری کم بوده است.
Abrishami, H., & Mohseni, R. (2002). Oil Export Fluctuations and Economic Growth. Iranian Economic Research Quarterly, 13, 1-32, (In Persian).
Alwang, J. and P. B. Siegel (1994), "Portfolio Models and Planning for Export Diversification: Malawi, Tanzania and Zimbabwe", Journal of Development Studies, Vol. 30, No. 2, pp. 405-422.
Amable, B. (2000), "International Specialization and Growth", Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Vol. 11, No. 4, pp. 413-431.
Arellano, M. and S. R. Bond (1991), "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and Application to Employment Equations", The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 58, No. 2, pp. 277-297.
Baltagi, B. H. (2005), Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, John Wiley & Sons Ltd, 3rd Edition, New York, USA.
Bensidoun, I., G. Gaulier and D. Unal-Kesenci (2001), "The Nature of Specialization Matters for Growth: An Empirical Investigation", Working Papers 2001-13. CEPII Research Center, Paris.
Chami Batista, J. (2004), "Latin American Export Specialization in Resource-Based Products: Implications for Growth", The Developing Economies, Vol. 42, Issue 3, pp. 337-370.
Falvey, R., D. Greenaway, Z. Yu and J. Gullstrand (2004), "Exports, Restructuring and Industry Productivity Growth", GEP Research Paper 2004-40, Leverhulme Centre for Research on Globalisation and Economic Policy, University of Nottingham.
Farberger, J. (1994), "Technology and International Differences in Growth Rates", Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 32, Issue 3, pp. 1147-1175.
Farberger, J. (2000), "Technological Progress, Structural Change and productivity Growth: A Comparative Study", Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Vol. 11, Issue 4, pp. 393-411.
Ferrantino, M., and S. Gutierres, (1997), Export Diversification and Structural Dynamics in the Growth Process: The Case of Chile", Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 52, pp. 375-391.
Fryges, H. and J. Wagner (2007), "Exports and Productivity Growth: First Evidence from a Continuous Treatment Approach", University of Lüneburg, Working Paper Series in Economics, No. 49.
Greenaway, D., C. W. Morgan and P. W. Wright (1999), "Export Composition, Exports and Growth", Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, Vol. 8, pp.41-52.
Greenaway, D. and R. A. Kneller (2004), "Exporting and Productivity in the United Kingdom", Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol. 20, Issue 3, pp. 358-371.
Grossman, G. M. and E. Helpman (1991), Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Hausmann, R., J. Hwang and D. Rodrik (2007), "What You Export Matters", Journal of Economic Growth, Vol. 12, No. 1, pp. 1-25.
Heritage Foundation (2009), "Highlights of the 2009 Index of Economic Freedom: The link between Economic Opportunity and Prosperity", Washington, DC: The Heritage Foundation.
Hirsch, S. and B. Leu (1971), "Sales Stabilization through Export Diversification", The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 53, Issue 3, pp. 270-277.
Lall, S. (2000), "The Technological Structure and Performance of Developing Country Manufactured Exports, 1995-1998", Oxford Development Studies, Vol. 28, Issue 3, pp. 337-369.
Love, J. (1979), "A Model of Trade Diversification Based on the Markowitz Model of Portfolio Analysis", The Journal of Development Studies, Vol. 15, Issue 2, pp. 233-241.
Lucas Jr., R. E. (1988), "On the Mechanics of Economic Development", Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 22, Issue 1, pp. 3-42.
Lucas Jr., R. E. (1993), "Making a Miracle", Econometrica, Vol. 61, Issue 2, pp. 251-272.
Macbean, A. I. and D. T. Nguyen (1980), "Commodity Concentration and Export Earning Instability: A Mathematical Analysis", Economic Journal, Vol. 90, pp. 354-362.
Mehregan, N., & Ashrafzadeh, S. M. R. (2008). Data Panel Econometrics. University of Tehran, Cooperative Research Institute, (In Persian).
Mehrara, M., & Mohseni, R. (2004). Foreign Trade Effects on Productivity: The Case of Iran. Journal of Economic Research, 66, 57-89, (In Persian).
Michaely, M. (1962), Concentration in International Trade, Contributions to Economic Analysis, Amsterdam: North-Holland.
Ng, F. and A. Yeats (2003), "Major Trade Trends in East Asia: What Are Their Implications for Regional Cooperation and Growth?", World Bank Policy Research Paper, Working Paper Series, No. 3084.
Penn World Table (2009), available at http://pwt.econ.upenn.edu
Rodrik, D., R. Hausmann and J. Hwang (2006), "What You Export Matters", available at http://www.wcfia.harvard.edu/sites /default /files/Rodrick_WhatYou.pdf
Santos-Paulino, A. U. (2002), "Trade Liberalization and Export Performance in Selected Developing Countries", The Journal of Development Studies, Vol. 39, Issue 1, pp. 140-164.
Santos-Paulino, A. U. (2008), "Export Productivity and Specialization in China, Brazil, India and South Africa", available at http://ideas.repec.org/p/unu/wpaper/rp2008-28.html
Senhadji, A. S., and C. E. Montenegro (1999), "Time Series Analysis of Export Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis", IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 46, No. 3.
Sheila, A. G. d. P. and M. Ferrantino (1997), "Export Diversification and Structural Dynamics in the Growth Process: The Case of Chile", Journals of Development Economics, Vol. 52, Issue 2, pp. 375-391.
Taghipour, A., & Mousavi Al-Azadkasmai, A. (2001). An Analysis on Export Diversification and its Effect on the Increase of Non-Oil Exchange Foreign Exchange Earnings: The Study of Iran. Business Journal, 5, 109-143, (In Persian).
The International Study Group on Exports and Productivity (2007), "Exports and Productivity-Comparable Evidence for 14 Countries", Policy Research Working Paper Series, No. 4418, The World Bank.
UNCTAD (2008), Handbook of Statistics, Geneva, United Nations.
Wagner, j. (2007), "Exports and Productivity in Germany", University of Lüneburg, Working Paper Series in Economics, No. 41.
Wood A., and K. Berge (1997), "Exporting Manufactures: Human Resources, Natural Resources and Trade Policy" Journal of Development Studies, Vol. 34, pp. 35-59.
World Bank (2008), World Development Indicators, New York, Oxford University Press.
_||_
Abrishami, H., & Mohseni, R. (2002). Oil Export Fluctuations and Economic Growth. Iranian Economic Research Quarterly, 13, 1-32, (In Persian).
Alwang, J. and P. B. Siegel (1994), "Portfolio Models and Planning for Export Diversification: Malawi, Tanzania and Zimbabwe", Journal of Development Studies, Vol. 30, No. 2, pp. 405-422.
Amable, B. (2000), "International Specialization and Growth", Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Vol. 11, No. 4, pp. 413-431.
Arellano, M. and S. R. Bond (1991), "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and Application to Employment Equations", The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 58, No. 2, pp. 277-297.
Baltagi, B. H. (2005), Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, John Wiley & Sons Ltd, 3rd Edition, New York, USA.
Bensidoun, I., G. Gaulier and D. Unal-Kesenci (2001), "The Nature of Specialization Matters for Growth: An Empirical Investigation", Working Papers 2001-13. CEPII Research Center, Paris.
Chami Batista, J. (2004), "Latin American Export Specialization in Resource-Based Products: Implications for Growth", The Developing Economies, Vol. 42, Issue 3, pp. 337-370.
Falvey, R., D. Greenaway, Z. Yu and J. Gullstrand (2004), "Exports, Restructuring and Industry Productivity Growth", GEP Research Paper 2004-40, Leverhulme Centre for Research on Globalisation and Economic Policy, University of Nottingham.
Farberger, J. (1994), "Technology and International Differences in Growth Rates", Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 32, Issue 3, pp. 1147-1175.
Farberger, J. (2000), "Technological Progress, Structural Change and productivity Growth: A Comparative Study", Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Vol. 11, Issue 4, pp. 393-411.
Ferrantino, M., and S. Gutierres, (1997), Export Diversification and Structural Dynamics in the Growth Process: The Case of Chile", Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 52, pp. 375-391.
Fryges, H. and J. Wagner (2007), "Exports and Productivity Growth: First Evidence from a Continuous Treatment Approach", University of Lüneburg, Working Paper Series in Economics, No. 49.
Greenaway, D., C. W. Morgan and P. W. Wright (1999), "Export Composition, Exports and Growth", Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, Vol. 8, pp.41-52.
Greenaway, D. and R. A. Kneller (2004), "Exporting and Productivity in the United Kingdom", Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol. 20, Issue 3, pp. 358-371.
Grossman, G. M. and E. Helpman (1991), Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Hausmann, R., J. Hwang and D. Rodrik (2007), "What You Export Matters", Journal of Economic Growth, Vol. 12, No. 1, pp. 1-25.
Heritage Foundation (2009), "Highlights of the 2009 Index of Economic Freedom: The link between Economic Opportunity and Prosperity", Washington, DC: The Heritage Foundation.
Hirsch, S. and B. Leu (1971), "Sales Stabilization through Export Diversification", The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 53, Issue 3, pp. 270-277.
Lall, S. (2000), "The Technological Structure and Performance of Developing Country Manufactured Exports, 1995-1998", Oxford Development Studies, Vol. 28, Issue 3, pp. 337-369.
Love, J. (1979), "A Model of Trade Diversification Based on the Markowitz Model of Portfolio Analysis", The Journal of Development Studies, Vol. 15, Issue 2, pp. 233-241.
Lucas Jr., R. E. (1988), "On the Mechanics of Economic Development", Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 22, Issue 1, pp. 3-42.
Lucas Jr., R. E. (1993), "Making a Miracle", Econometrica, Vol. 61, Issue 2, pp. 251-272.
Macbean, A. I. and D. T. Nguyen (1980), "Commodity Concentration and Export Earning Instability: A Mathematical Analysis", Economic Journal, Vol. 90, pp. 354-362.
Mehregan, N., & Ashrafzadeh, S. M. R. (2008). Data Panel Econometrics. University of Tehran, Cooperative Research Institute, (In Persian).
Mehrara, M., & Mohseni, R. (2004). Foreign Trade Effects on Productivity: The Case of Iran. Journal of Economic Research, 66, 57-89, (In Persian).
Michaely, M. (1962), Concentration in International Trade, Contributions to Economic Analysis, Amsterdam: North-Holland.
Ng, F. and A. Yeats (2003), "Major Trade Trends in East Asia: What Are Their Implications for Regional Cooperation and Growth?", World Bank Policy Research Paper, Working Paper Series, No. 3084.
Penn World Table (2009), available at http://pwt.econ.upenn.edu
Rodrik, D., R. Hausmann and J. Hwang (2006), "What You Export Matters", available at http://www.wcfia.harvard.edu/sites /default /files/Rodrick_WhatYou.pdf
Santos-Paulino, A. U. (2002), "Trade Liberalization and Export Performance in Selected Developing Countries", The Journal of Development Studies, Vol. 39, Issue 1, pp. 140-164.
Santos-Paulino, A. U. (2008), "Export Productivity and Specialization in China, Brazil, India and South Africa", available at http://ideas.repec.org/p/unu/wpaper/rp2008-28.html
Senhadji, A. S., and C. E. Montenegro (1999), "Time Series Analysis of Export Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis", IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 46, No. 3.
Sheila, A. G. d. P. and M. Ferrantino (1997), "Export Diversification and Structural Dynamics in the Growth Process: The Case of Chile", Journals of Development Economics, Vol. 52, Issue 2, pp. 375-391.
Taghipour, A., & Mousavi Al-Azadkasmai, A. (2001). An Analysis on Export Diversification and its Effect on the Increase of Non-Oil Exchange Foreign Exchange Earnings: The Study of Iran. Business Journal, 5, 109-143, (In Persian).
The International Study Group on Exports and Productivity (2007), "Exports and Productivity-Comparable Evidence for 14 Countries", Policy Research Working Paper Series, No. 4418, The World Bank.
UNCTAD (2008), Handbook of Statistics, Geneva, United Nations.
Wagner, j. (2007), "Exports and Productivity in Germany", University of Lüneburg, Working Paper Series in Economics, No. 41.
Wood A., and K. Berge (1997), "Exporting Manufactures: Human Resources, Natural Resources and Trade Policy" Journal of Development Studies, Vol. 34, pp. 35-59.
World Bank (2008), World Development Indicators, New York, Oxford University Press.
