پیش‌بینی موفقیت توسعه محصول جدید با استفاده از ترکیب تحلیل عاملی و شبکه عصبی مصنوعی

الموضوعات :

غلامرضا سلطانی فسقندیس ¹ (دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت تحقیق در عملیات، پردیس بین‌الملل، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد)
علیرضا پویا ² (دانشیار دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد، گروه مدیریت دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد)
مصطفی کاظمی ³ (استاد دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد، گروه مدیریت دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد)
زهرا ناجی عظیمی ⁴ (دانشیار دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد، گروه مدیریت دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد)

تاريخ الإرسال : 26 الجمعة , ربيع الثاني, 1437 تاريخ التأكيد : 28 السبت , شعبان, 1437 تاريخ الإصدار : 19 الإثنين , ذو القعدة, 1437

الکلمات المفتاحية: تحلیل عاملی, شبکه عصبی مصنوعی, موفقیت توسعه محصول جدید,

ملخص المقالة :

موفقیت محصولات جدید به عنوان برترین عامل برای موفقیت شرکت ها و حتی بقای آنها محسوب می شود. با این حال بررسی های متعدد نشان می دهد که نرخ شکست توسعه محصول جدید به عنوان یک معضل اساسی در بسیاری از شرکت ها مطرح بوده است. شرکت های بسیاری سعی دارند تا قبل از توسعه محصول جدید، اقدام به پیش بینی موفقیت توسعه محصول جدید نمایند. بر همین اساس نیز هدف این تحقیق پیش بینی موفقیت توسعه محصول جدید با استفاده از ترکیب روش های تحلیل عاملی و شبکه عصبی مصنوعی در صنایع غذایی و آشامیدنی می باشد. این تحقیق براساس هدف کاربردی و براساس روش انجام کار توصیفی بوده است. جامعه آماری این تحقیق، شرکت های تولید کننده مواد غذایی و آشامیدنی استان آذربایجان شرقی در سال 1394 بوده است. به منظور جمع آوری داده ها در این تحقیق از دو پرسشنامه استفاده شده است که بعد از اطمینان از روایی و پایایی آن در بین جامعه آماری توزیع گردیده است. به منظور تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها در این تحقیق از روش های تحلیل عاملی و شبکه عصبی مصنوعی استفاده شده است. نتایج تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها نشان دهنده وجود شش سازه اصلی مفهوم سازی محصول جدید، گرایش به بازار، گرایش به طراحی، گرایش به عوامل فنی و تکنولوژی، استفاده از منابع و مدیریت توسعه محصول جدید به عنوان عوامل موثر در موفقیت توسعه محصول جدید بوده است. همچنین پیش بینی موفقیت توسعه محصول جدید با استفاده از شبکه عصبی مصنوعی نشان می دهد که شبکه طراحی شده در 81 درصد موارد قادر به پیش بینی صحیح موفقیت توسعه محصول جدید بوده است.

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