Futurology of Multi-Criteria Decision Making Techniques Using Philosophical Assumptions of Paradigms in Scenario Writing
الموضوعات :
Mehdi Roghani
1
(
Department of Industrial Management, South Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
)
Mahmoud Modiri
2
(
Department of Industrial Management, South Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
)
Kiamars Fathi Hafshjani
3
(
Department of Industrial Management, South Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
)
AbuTurab Alirezaei
4
(
Department of Industrial Management, South Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
)
الکلمات المفتاحية: Multi-Criteria Decision Making, Scenario Writing, Futures Research, Paradigm,
ملخص المقالة :
There are many opportunities and threats in the decision-making environment for managers, and an organization must use research and information systems to change, monitor, and anticipate this environment. Futurism reflects how tomorrow reality gives birth to tomorrow's reality is. The purpose of this research; Analyzing the role of futures studies in the existing patterns of critical factors of multi-criteria decision-making techniques in operations research using the philosophical assumptions of the classical and critical paradigms and finally determining the appropriate strategy based on these components, to increase success and life expectancy. The present study intends to formulate exploratory scenarios of this knowledge by using the critical uncertainty approach. To develop credible scenarios of knowledge of decision techniques, the opinions of 15 experts in this field were collected using the fuzzy Delphi approach and through the critical uncertainty questionnaire. After extracting the most important uncertainties, plausible scenarios of decision-making techniques were determined with the help of experts. According to the results obtained from the opinion of experts from the critical uncertainty questionnaire, four research uncertainties were identified, identified and the scenario design criteria were used. Each of the four cases, which includes low attention to social issues versus high attention to social issues, low attention to ethical models versus high attention to ethical models, low attention to soft approaches versus high attention to soft approaches, Low attention to complex issues versus high attention to complex issues indicates a specific dual situation in the future. Each of these dual situations indicates uncertainty about the future of multi-criteria decision making. Based on these uncertainties, three scenarios were identified. These scenarios include Achilles heel, phoenix, and heel. Also, semi-structured interviews with the theme analysis approach were used, and the philosophy of past and future approaches in this field was reviewed and critiqued.
Ahmadi, Babak (2014). Modernity and critical thinking. Tehran: Markaz Publishing.
Azar (2012) Ethical considerations in modeling. Ethics in Science and Technology, seventh year, numbers six and seven.
Azar, Adel; Mir Mohammadi, Arash (2012) Principle Modeling: A New Approach to Modeling Complex Ethical Issues. Journal of Ethics in Science and Technology, Year 7, Number One.
Altiok, P. (2015), Applicable vision, mission and the effects of strategic management on crisis resolve, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Science,Vol. 24, pp. 61-71.
Ackoff, R.(2008). The social responsibility of OR. Opl Res. Q. 25,pp.361-371.
Bell, W. (2018). Foundations of Futures Studies: Human Science for a New Era: History, Purposes.
Bhaskar, R.(2015). Scientific realism and human emancipation. London: Verso.
Carlsson, C. (2017) "Theory and Practice of Multiple Criteria Decision Making", North - Holland Publishing Company.
Ehresman, C. (2013). A theoretical frame for future studies, On the Horizon.211,(46-53).
Groff, L. (2015), Introduction to Future Studies. Foresight, 3(5), 106
Godet. M (2016). Creating Futures: Scenario Planning as a Strategic Management Tool. France: Economica publish.
Gilles, Donald (2011). The philosophy of science in the twentieth century. Translation by Hassan Miandari, Tehran: Taha publications.
Iman, Mohammad Taghi (2016). Qualitative research methodology. Qom: Research Institute and University.
Jackson, MC. (2013).Systems thinking: holism for managers. Chichester: Wiley.
Khaki, Gholamreza (2015) Research Method with Tehran Thesis Approach: Reflections. Success Factors in National Prediction, Quarterly Journal of Future Studies, Fifth Year.
Kowalski, K. (2009). Sustainable energy futures: methodological challenges in combining scenarios and participatory multi-criteria analysis. European Journal of Operational Research 197, pp. 1063-1074.
Mehregan, Mohammad Reza (2009). Operational research: Linear programming and its applications. Tehran: University Book Publishing.
Malekifar, Aqeel (2016) Futurism, science and art, discovering the future and shaping the good world of tomorrow. Industry and Technology Thinking Room.
Moshbaki, Asghar (2016). Organizational, Organizational and Metaphor of the School of Management, University of Tehran, University of Tehran Press, Fourth Edition.
Mingers, J.(2016). Towards an appropriate social theory for applied systems thinking: critical theory and soft systems methodology. J Appl Syst Anal 7: 41-50.
Paucar-Caceres, A.(2010). Mapping the changes in management science: a review of soft OR/MS articles published in Omega (1973-2008). Omega 38, pp.46-56.
Rosenhead, J.(2006). Past, present and future of problem structuring methods. Journal of the Operational Research Society 57, pp.759-765.
Roberge, I. (2012), Futures construction in public management. International Journal of Public Sector Management, 26(7), pp. 534-542.
Ramírez, R., & Wilkinson, A. (2016).Strategic Reframing: The Oxford Scenario Planning Approach. Oxford University Press.
Slaughter, R. (2013), Futures beyond Dystopia, Creating Social Foresight. London: Routledge, 1th edition.
Slavec, N. & Jovic, A. (2012). Application of Grey System Theory management Projects Ranking. ATKAFF, 53 (3): 284-293.
Sterman, J.D. (2017). Business dynamics: systems thinking and modeling for acomplex world. Boston: Irwin: McGraw-Hill.
San Cristóbal JR.(2019) Multi-criteria decision-making in the selection of a renewable energy project in spain: the Vikor method. Renew Energy 2011;36(2):498–502.
Westcombe, M.(2014). Problem structuring: the process of modeling. Working Paper.
Wallace, W.A.(2014). Ethics in modeling. Elsevier Science Ltd. Oxfoed. UK.
Flood R, Jackson M (2016). Creative Problem Solving: Total Systems Intervention. Wiley. London: pp 17-82.
