The Effect of Fiscal Policies on Labor Demand in Iran
الموضوعات :Alireza mahmoodzadeh 1 , Mino Amini Milani 2 , Mohammad Sadegh Alipour 3
1 - Department of Economics, Payam Noor University, Tehran, Iran
2 - Department of Economics, Payam Noor University, Tehran, Iran
3 - Iran Institute of Statistics, Tehran, Iran
الکلمات المفتاحية: Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Taxes, Labor Demand, Government Expenditures, Fiscal Policy,
ملخص المقالة :
The labor market is one of the main markets in the national economy and the equilibrium of the labor market is one of the main concerns of policymakers in every country. Theoretical foundations and empirical studies show that labor demand is the main factor in creating employment and equilibrium in the labor market. This article evaluates the effect of fiscal policy on labor demand in Iran from 1976-2018. During this period, the government has implemented employment-generating projects, tax and insurance exemptions via annual development programs and budgets, and encouraged investment in areas with high unemployment rates. we examined the effect of current government expenditures, government development expenditures, and taxes to study the effect of government fiscal policies on labor demand. In this article, we estimate the dynamic function of labor demand using the ARDL technique. According to the theoretical foundations and empirical studies in the specified function, labor demand is a function of intermittent values and independent variables of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), real wages, capital stock, current government expenditures, government development expenditures, tax revenues, and dummy variables of imposed war and the UN Security Council sanction. The results showed that fiscal policy has not had a positive effect on labor demand in the Iranian labor market in the short and long term.
[1] Akhundzadeh, T., Aghazadeh, E., and Babazadeh, M., The relationship between corporate income tax and unemployment rate in Iran, Paper Presented at International and Online Green Economy Confer-ence of Iran, 2014. (in persian)
[2] Abbasian, EZ., Moradpour, M., and Hashim Begi, H., Evaluation of the effect of tax uncertainty on the employment of major economic sectors of Iran during the period 1978-2004, Economic Research, 2006; 41(4):171-196. (in persian). Doi:20.1001.1.00398969.1385.41.4.7.6
[3] Aziz Mohammadlou, H., Comparative evaluation of the impact of policy tools on employment and labor demand in Iran's economic sectors based on the approach of imbalance in the labor market, Quarter-ly Ekhtosad-e-Qadari, 2018; 15(3): 43-78. doi: 10.22055/jqe.2018.22664.1670, (in persian).
[4] Armenm, S. A., Kefili, V., Gurbannejad, M., Investagation the Two-way relationship between minimum wage and unemployment, Iranian Applied Economics Quarterly, 2014; 3(12): 2-236. (in persian).
doi:20.1001.1.23222530.1383.3.12.12.0
[5] Branson, W. H., Theory and Policies of Macroeconomics, Shakri, A., Tehran, Ney Publication, 2005.
[6] Berben,R.l and Brosens, T., The Impact of Government Debt on Private consumption in OECD Coun-tries, Economics Letters, 2007; 94(2): 220-225. doi: 10.1016/j.econlet.2006.06.033
[7] Chavoshi, M., Yousefi, Mo, R., Comparative analysis of the effect of economic policies (monetary and financial) on the unemployment rate of university graduates and the general unemployed, Economic Strategy Quarterly, 2019; 8(30):105-132. (in persian)
[8] Ebrahimi, N., Pedram, M., Mousavi, M, H., The Effect of Fiscal Policy on Unemployment and Inflation in Provinces of Iran, A GVAR, Quarterly Journal of Economic Modelling, 2021; 15(53):24-48.
doi:10. 30495/ECO.2021.1892800.2341(in persian),
[9] Egebark, J., and Kaunitz, N., Payroll taxes and youth labor demand, Labour Economics, 2018; 55(C):163- 181. doi: 10.1016/j.labeco.2018.10.001
[10] Fatemi, M., Zayandehrodi, M., Jalaee, A., Investigation the effect of the optimal government size on employment in the agricultural sector in Irans economy, Quarterly Journal of Village and Space Sustain-able Development Accepted Manuscript Available Online from 08 Novamber 2022, doi:10.22077NSSD.2022.5587.1127, (in persian).
[11] Gorji, E., Jafari Qudousi A., Dynamic Macroeconomics (Unemployment, Inflation and Inflationary Stagnation), Tehran, Samt Publications.2012 (in persian)
[12] Ham, A., Revisiting the effects of minimum wages in developing countries, Evidence from a particu-lar policy change in Honduras.National Bureau of Economic Research, NBER Working pa-pers.2013.NO.18681
[13] Hoseinpur, M., and Hojabr Kiani, K., stimating of The of Government Expenditure Multiplier and The Effects of Government Expenditure Shocks in Iran's Economy and Selected Countries, Quarterly Journal of Applied Theoris of Economics, 2022; 19(1): 115-144. doi:10.22034/ECOj.2022.27065.2265, (in per-sian).
[14] Kamijani, A., Karimi, S., Estimation and simulation of labor demand function in Iran, Journal of Fu-ture Studies of Management, 2000; 11(3): 17-51. (in persian)
[15] Manzoor, D., and Bahalu, H., Analysis of the effects of increasing the minimum wage on the employ-ment of unskilled and skilled labor in Iran: a computable general equilibrium approach, Quantitative Eco-nomic Research Quarterly,2015;12(3):69-93, doi: 10.22055/jqe.2015.11894(in persian).
[16] Miyazaki, T., The Effects of FiscalPolicy in the1990s in Japan: a VARAnalysiswith Event Studies, Japan and the World Economy, 2010; 22(2): 80 -8. doi: 10.1016/j.japwor.2009.07.002
[17] Nobukht, M, B., Labor Economy (Strategies for balancing the labor market and employment of grad-uates), first edition, Tehran: Strategic Research Center of Expediency Analysis Forum.2008 (in persian)
[18] Nofarsti, M., The Root of Unity and Collectiveness in Econometrics, 6th Edition, Tehran: Rasa Cul-tural Services Institute.2016. (in persian).
[19] O' Nwachukwu, chined u Increas, Determinants of the Rate of Unemployment in Nigeria, Interna-tional Journal of Information Reserch and Review, 2017; 4(10):3593-3595.
[20] Papa, E., The Effects of Fiscal Shocks on Employment and Real Wage; International Economic Re-view, 2009; 50(1): 217-224. doi: 10.1111/j.1468-2354.2008.00528.x
[21] Pozzi, L., Government Debt , Imperfect Information and Fiscal Policy Effects on Private Con-sumption, Chant University Working Paper ,2001.
[22] Rezagholizadeh, M., Evaluation of the effects of government financial policies from the direction of changes in tax revenues on employment, Business Economics Research Journal, 2014; 5(9): 39-50. (in persian)
[23] Samsami, H., Ebrahimnejad, A., The impact of uncertainty of economic policies on unemployment and entrepreneurship in Iran's economy, simultaneous equations system approach, Economic Research, 2019; 54(4): 995-1016. Doi;10.22059/JTE.2019.74175(in persian).
[24] Sajidi, S. M., Gholami, M., and Gol Mohammadi, T., Investigation of the sensitivity of tax bases on macroeconomic variables, 9th Conference on Fiscal and Tax Policies of Iran, Economic Research Insti-tute of Tehran University, Tax Affairs Organization, 2014. (in persian)
[25] Sepehr Dost, H., Hosseini Dost, S. E., Babaei, A., and Tatar, M., Investigation of the response of the employment rate to the tax structure in Iran, Economic Studies and Policies,2019; 6(2): 127-160(in per-sian).
[26] Soheili, Kh; Fatahi, S., and Mohammady. S., Investigation of the role and effects of private and public investors on employment in the provinces of Iran: the productivity of generalized torques, Journal of Macroeconomics,2017; 12(24): 121-148. doi:10.22080/IEJM.2018.1940(in persian).
[27] Sharifi, N., Effects of indirect tax and government expenditure on employment and inflation: a data-output analysis, Economic Research, 201; 46(95): 59-78, doi; 20.1001.1.00398969.1390.46.4.3.3(in per-sian).
[28] Tashkini, A, Applied Econometrics by Microfit Method, First Edition, Tehran: Noor Alam Publica-tions.2014. (in persian)
[29] Taqavi, M., Rezaei, E., Examination of the effects of financial policies on consumption and employ-ment in Iran, Economic Research Journal, 2004; 3(15):109-132. (in persian)
[30] Van Aarle, B., and Garretsen, H., Keynesian, non- Keynesisn or no effects of fiscal policy changes? The EMU case, Journal of Macroeconomics, 2003; 25(2):213-240. doi:10.1016/S0164-0704(03)00026-0
[31] Yongjin, sa, Government size, Economic Growth and Unemploymeny:Evidence from Advanced and Developing Economy Countries (A Time SeriesAnalysis, 1996-2006), International Review of Pblic Ad-ministration, 2011; 16(2): 95-116. doi:10.1080/12264431.2011.10805198
[32] Zaranejad, M., Hosseinpour, A., The effect of government size on the unemployment rate in Iran, Iranian Economic Research Quarterly (Sustainable Growth and Development), 2016; 16(1): 191-209.
doi:20.1001.1.17356768.16.1.5.8, (in persian).