Application of Panel Regression Model in Examining the Effect of Monetary Policy on Bank Profitability
الموضوعات :Fatemeh Saatichoubar 1 , Mohammad Mohebbi 2 , Yaghoob Zeraat kish 3 , Ebrahim Negahdari 4
1 - Department Of Economics, Qeshm Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qeshm, Iran
2 - Department of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Hormozgan University, Bandar Abbas, Iran
3 - Department Of economics, Science and research Branch, Islamic Azad University,Tehran, Iran
4 - Department Of Economics, Bandar Abbas Branch, Islamic Azad University, Bandar Abbas, Iran
الکلمات المفتاحية: Monetary Policy, Combined Data Regression, Banking Performance, GMM,
ملخص المقالة :
Profit is one of the most important factors influencing economic decision making, the changes of which depend on various factors. Banks, as one of the most important business units, have a special reliance on the concept of profitability and their performance is significantly influenced by macroeconomic conditions. Government economic policies are placed. This paper aims at applying the panel regression model to study the effect of monetary policy on the profitability of banks from 2006 to 2018 using data from 30 provinces to find appropriate policy recommendations for decision-making in the banking system. The research method was the use of GMM regression technique in the context of combined data. According to the results, the performance and profitability of banks are improved by the implementation of expansionary monetary policy. However, bank lending and price inflation have a negative effect on banks' performance. According to the results of this study, control variables such as the amount of overdue claims and GDP also had a positive effect on the performance of banks. Also at the macro level, with regard to the negative effects of Expansion monetary policy and the growth of liquidity, with the controlled implementation of Expansion monetary policy, it helps to improve the performance of banks in the banking system.
[1] Abdi, D., Moradi, M., Takieh, L., The Study of the Asymmetric Effects of Banking Sector Development on the Profitability of the Melli Bank Based on the Comprehensive Banking Model with the Non-linear Model of Markov Regime Change (MS), Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, 2020, 6(4), P.191-216. (In Persian).
[2] Ahmadpor, H., Uncertainty and Optimal Strategy in Bank Liquidity Management, Banking and Economy, December 95, 2008, P.44-48. (In Persian).
[3] Ahmadpor, A., Shahsavari, M., Profit Management and the Impact of Profit Quality on the Future Profit of Bankrupt Companies of Tehran Stock Exchange, Experimental Studies of Financial Accounting, 2014, 12(41) P.37-58. Doi: 10.22054/qjma.2016.7097
[4] Altar, L., Risk Management in the Interest-Free Banking System (with Emphasis on Credit Risk), M.Sc. in Research, Department of Islamic Banking, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Economic News2010, 8(30), P. 20-26.
[5] Angeloni, I., F, Marco, L., Monetary policy and risk taking. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2015, P. 285-307. Doi:10.1016/j.intfin.2006.07.001
[6] Athanasoglou, P., Sophocles, B., Matthaios, D., Bank-specific, industry-specific and macroeconomic determinants of bank profitability, Journal of international financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 2008, 18(2), P.121-136. Doi: 10.1016/j.intfin.2006.07.001
[7] Barros, C., Cândida, F., Jonathan, W., Analysing the determinants of performance of best and worst European banks: A mixed logit approach. Journal of Banking & Finance.2007, 31(7), P. 2189-2203. Doi:10.17261/Pressacademia.2017.750
[8] Bazgir, M., The relationship between the rate of return on assets and the rate of inflation in companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange, Master of Thesis in Accounting, Mazandaran University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences.2005.
[9] Berger, A., The relationship between capital and earnings in banking." Journal of money, credit and Banking,1995, 27(2), P.432-456. Doi:10.2307/2077877.
[10] Bozorgi, G., Fatemeh, S., Mansour, A., Alireza., and Homayounfar, M., Efficiency Analysis of Banking Sector in Presence of Undesirable Factors Using Data Envelopment Analysis, Advances in Mathematical Finance and Applications, in press, 2022. Doi:10.22034/amfa.2022.1950209.1684
[11] Caby, J., Ydriss, Z., and Eric, L., The impact of climate change management on banks profitability, Journal of Business Research, 2022, 142, P.412-422. Doi:10.1016/j.jbusres.2021.12.078
[12] Chen, M., Wu, J., Jeon, B.N., Wang, R., Monetary Policy and Bank Rsktaking: Evidence from Emerging Economies, Emerging Markets Review 31, 2016, P.116-140. Doi: 10.1016/j.ememar.2017.04.001
[13] Damette, O., Imen, K., Political influence and banking performance: Evidence from the African countries, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 2022. Doi:10.1016/j.qref.2022.01.011
[14] Davis, E. Philip, D., Dennison, N., The effects of macroprudential policy on banks' profitability, International Review of Financial Analysis, 2022, 80, P.101989. Doi:10.1016/j.irfa.2021.101989
[15] Elsas, R, Andreas, H., Markus, H., The anatomy of bank diversification. Journal of Banking & Finance, 2010, 34(6), P.1274-1287. Doi:10.1016/j.jbankfin.2009.11.024
[16] García, H., Alicia, S., Daniel, S., What explains the low profitability of Chinese banks? Journal of Banking & Finance, 2009, 33(11), P.2080-2092. Doi:10.1016/j.jbankfin.2009.05.005
[17] Goddard, J., Phil, M., John, W., Dynamics of growth and profitability in banking, Journal of money, credit and banking, 2004, P.1069-1090. Doi:10.1353/mcb.2005.0015
[18] Hassan, M., Abdel, H., Determinants of Islamic banking profitability. 10th ERF annual conference, Morocco,2003, 7(2), P.45-60. Doi:10.3366/edinburgh/9780748621002.003.0008
[19] Iannotta, G., Giacomo, N., Andrea, S., Ownership structure, risk and performance in the European banking industry, Journal of banking & finance, 2007, 31(7), P. 2127-2149. Doi:10.1016/j.jbankfin.2006.07.013
[20] Ismailpour, K., Mohammad, E., Explaining the Relationship between Liquidity Creation Power and Banking Capital Structure, M.Sc. Thesis, Shahid Beheshti University, 2014, P.24-95. (in Persian).
[21] Jermann, U., Quadrini, V., Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Shocks, NBER Working Papers 15338, National Bureau of Economic Research Inc 2009.
[22] Jiménez, G., Hazardous times for monetary policy: What do twenty‐three million bank loans say about the effects of monetary policy on credit risk‐taking? Econometrica, 2014, 82(2), P.463-505. Doi:10.3982/ECTA10104
[23] Johari, F., Bank Lending Channel Reaction to Financial Suppression Policies, Advances in Mathematical Finance and Applications ,2021, Doi: 10.22034/amfa.2021.1910959.1502
[24] Junttila, J., Vo Cao Sang, N., Impacts of sovereign risk premium on bank profitability: Evidence from euro area, International Review of Financial Analysis 81, 2022, P. 102-110. Doi:10.1016/j.irfa.2022.102110
[25] Klein, P., and Laurent W., Bank profitability and economic growth, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 2022, Doi:10.1016/j.qref.2022.01.009
[26] Kosmidou, K., The determinants of banks' profits in Greece during the period of EU financial integration, Managerial finance, 2008. Doi:10.1108/03074350810848036.
[27] Naceur, S., The determinants of the Tunisian banking industry profitability: Panel evidence, Universite Libre de Tunis working papers,2003, 10(5), P. 127-130. Doi: 10.20525/ijfbs.v5i1.45
[28] Nikhil, B., Shivakumar, D., Monetary policy collision on the performance of banking sector in India. Vilakshan-XIMB Journal of Management ,2021. Doi:10.1108/XJM-11-2020-0200
[29] Poetry, A., Saber, M., Rostaghi. B., Financial Flexibility and Capital Structure Decisions in Companies Listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange, Empirical Studies in Financial Accounting2015, 13(1), P. 9-26. Doi: 10.22054/qjma.2015.1673
[30] Rafiee, S., Karim, E., Farhad, G., The effect of monetary policies on performance of banks: A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) approach. Economics Research, 2019, 19(72), P.1-36. Doi: 10.22054/joer.2019.10153
[31] Ramlall, Indranarain. Bank-specific, industry-specific and macroeconomic determinants of profitability in Taiwanese banking system: under panel data estimation, International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 2009, 34(2), P.1450-2887. Doi: 10.12691/ijbrm-1-1-3
[32] Renani, H., The effects of monetary policy on production and prices in Iran: a structural vector error correction (SVEC) approach, The Journal of Economic Policy, 2010, 2(3), P.45-69.
[33] Shihadeh, F., Bo, L., Does financial inclusion influence the Banks risk and performance? Evidence from global prospects,2019.
[34] Shihadeh, F., Does financial inclusion improve the banks’ performance? Evidence from Jordan. Global tensions in financial markets. Emerald Publishing Limited, 2018. Doi:10.1108/S0196-382120170000034005
[35] Shihadeh, Fadi. The influence of financial inclusion on banks’ performance and risk: new evidence from MENAP, 2020, 15(1), P.7, Doi:10.21511/bbs.
[36] Soofizadeh, S., Reza F., Identifying the Effective Factors in Banking Sector using Data Envelopment Analysis Considering System Efficiency, Advances in Mathematical Finance and Applications, 2021.