شناسایی و تحلیل پیشرانهای پیشگیری از جرم در محلات شهری تهران در راستای توسعۀ امنیت پایدار با استفاده از معادلات ساختاری فازی ؛ مورد پژوهی: منطقۀ 17 تهران
الموضوعات :
شهرام سلطانی
1
(دانشجوی دکتری گروه حقوق جزا و جرم شناسی، واحد مشهد ،دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی ، مشهد ،ایران)
عباس شیخ الاسلامی
2
(دانشیار گروه حقوق و جزا و جرم شناسی ، واحد مشهد ، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی ، مشهد ، ایران)
عبدالرضا اصغری
3
(استادیار ، گروه حقوق و جزا و جرم شناسی دانشگاه علوم رضوی، مشهد ، ایران)
الکلمات المفتاحية: توسعۀ امنیت پایدار, منطقۀ 17 تهران, پیشگیری از جرم, معادلات ساختاری فازی,
ملخص المقالة :
گسترش روزافزون جمعیت در نقاط شهری کشورهای در حال توسعه به همراه ناکارآمدی برنامه های اجتماعی، اقتصادی و به ویژه عدالت اجتماعی پیامدهایی را به دنبال دارد که افزایش جرایم و بزهکاری ها یکی از مهم ترین آنها محسوب می شود. به همین دلیل تلاش برای توسعۀ امنیت پایدار شهری از طریق شناسایی عوامل مؤثر پیشگیری در جرم و روش های ارتقاء آن به یکی از چالش های قراروی برنامه ریزان ، مسئولین و محققان رشته های مرتبط با این موضوعات تبدیل شده است. هدف پژوهش حاضر، شناسایی عوامل کلیدی مؤثر در راستای توسعۀ امنیت پایدار از طریق مدل پیشگیری از جرم در منطقۀ 17 شهر تهران می باشد. بر این اساس تعداد 48 زیرمتغیر عوامل اجتماعی-فرهنگی، اقتصادی، محیطی و نهادی مستخرج از مصاحبه های عمیق (گرندد تئوری) با 25 کارشناس در رشته های قضایی، انتظامی، جامعه شناسی و شهرسازی و تلفیق با ادبیات موجود بر اساس نظرات کارشناسان، شناسایی شد و این عوامل از طریق مدل معادلات ساختاری فازی (میک مک فازی زبانی) و نظرسنجی از 50 متخصص وزن دهی شد و سپس مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرار گرفت. بر اساس نتایج بدست آمده، 10 زیر متغیر بیکاری، توسعۀ اجتماعی-اقتصادی، فقر و نابرابری، اعتیاد، رضایت از زندگی، آموزش اجتماعی، انسجام خانوادگی، مشارکت اجتماعی، شبکۀ معابر و دسترسی و آلودگی نور و روشنایی به عنوان عوامل کلیدی در پیشگیری از جرم انتخاب گردیدند.
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