ارزیابی و تحلیل ریسک آسیب پذیری اقتصادی و اجتماعی سکونتگاه های روستایی در برابر زلزله (مطالعه موردی: روستاهای بخش مرکزی شهرستان اردبیل)
الموضوعات :
1 - استادیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی روستایی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران
الکلمات المفتاحية: TOPSIS, سکونتگاه های روستایی, آسیب پذیری اقتصادی و اجتماعی, اردبیل, زلزله,
ملخص المقالة :
پهنه ایران به دلیل قرار گیری روی کمربند زلزله همواره در معرض خطر وقوع زلزله بوده است. شکل گیری گسل های بزرگ و وجود میدان های تنش فعال، ایران را مستعد وقوع زلزله ها کرده است. تحقیق حاضر، با توجه به ماهیت مسئله و موضوع مورد بررسی از لحاظ هدف کاربردی و از نوع توصیفی- تحلیلی بوده و هدف آن ارزیابی و تحلیل آسیب پذیری سکونتگاه های روستایی بخش مرکزی اردبیل در برابر زلزله می باشد، جامعه آماری پژوهش 34 روستای بخش مرکزی است که دارای 28272 نفر جمعیت و 8151 خانوار می باشد. حجم نمونه بر اساس فرمول کوکران، 356 نفر برآورد گردید. جهت ارزیابی آسیب پذیری روستاهای مورد مطالعه از دو شاخص و 14 نماگر بر اساس مطالعات سایر محققین بهره گرفته شد. روایی صوری پرسشنامه توسط متخصصین مورد بررسی قرار گرفت و پایایی کل آن بر اساس آلفای کرونباخ 87/0 برآورد گردید، نتایج حاصل از این پژوهش نشان داد که از نظر سطح آسیب پذیری لرزه ای با استفاده از مدل Topsis ، بیش از 73 درصد روستاها با ریسک آسیب پذیری اقتصادی و اجتماعی بالا و بسیار بالا در برابر خطر زلزله قرار دارند. محاسبه آسیب پذیری کلی روستاها در منطقه مورد مطالعه نشان می دهد که 41 درصد روستاها آسیب پذیری متوسط و 59 درصد آسیب پذیری بالا و بسیار بالا قرار دارند. ارزیابی آسیب پذیری سکونتگاه های روستایی منطقه، بیانگر آسیب پذیری بالا و خیلی بالا در روستاهای محدوده مورد مطالعه بوده و این تهدیدی جدی برای افزایش خطر در منطقه می باشد.
Afifi, M.A., (2021), Assessing the resilience of rural settlements against natural hazards with emphasis on earthquakes in the villages of the central part of Darab city, Quarterly Journal of New Attitudes in Human Geography, Vol.13, N.2, pp. 131-150. (In Persian)
Afrakhteh, H., (2012), Space Economics and Rural Development (Case: Shaft District), Quarterly Journal of Space Economics and Rural Development, Year, First, No. 1, p.40. (In Persian)
Anabestani, A., Javanshir, M., Hanieh., H,(2020), Comparative analysis of the effects of resettlement patterns after the occurrence of natural hazards on quality of life Villagers Case study: )earthquake in Zirkuh city(,Geography and Environmental Hazards, Vol. 9, No. 2,pp. 199-144. (In Persian)
Barghi, H., Hashemi, S., Jafari, N., (2016), Assessing the environmental resilience of villages at risk of earthquakes: A case study of miracles in Zanjan, Journal of Rural Research and Planning, Vol. 6, No. 1, pp. 81-97. (In Persian)
Bastami Nia, A., Rezaei, M., Sarai, M., (2017), Explanation and analysis of social resilience to deal with natural disasters, Quarterly Journal of Crisis Prevention and Management, Vol. 8, No. 3, p.210. (In Persian)
Bazrafshan, J., Tulabi Nejad, M., Tulabi Nejad, M., (2015), Spatial Analysis of Resilience Differences in Urban and Rural Areas against Natural Hazards: Poldakhtar County, Rural Research Quarterly, Vol.9, No. 1, pp. 116-135. (In Persian)
Cutter. S. L, Ash. K. D, and Christopher T. Emrich. (2016). Urban–Rural Differences in Disaster esilience, Annals of the American Association of Geographers, Vol.106, No. 6, pp.1236- 1252.
Deniz, A. (2011). An integrated earthquake vulnerability assessment framework for urban areas. Natural hazards, 59(2), 917-947.
Ebert. A, Kerle. N, Stein. A.(2019), vulnerability assessment with physical proxies and spatial metrics derived from airand spaceborne imagery and GIS data, Nat Hazards, Vol. 48, PP. 275–294.
Farahani, H., Einali, J., Ghasemi Viri, H., (2014), The Role of Capacity Development in Managing Earthquake Risk Reduction in Rural Areas (Case Study: Abhar County, Sanbalabad County), Quarterly Journal of Housing and Rural Environment, Vol.33, No. 14, pp. 63-74. (In Persian)
GAO, X., & Ji, J. (2014). Analysis of the seismic vulnerability and the structural characteristics of houses in Chinese rural areas. Natural hazards, 70(2), 1099-1114.
Ghadiri Masoom, M., Qaraguzlu., H., (2012), The Role of Industrial Zones in the Economic and Social Development of Rural Settlements, Quarterly Journal of Space Economy and Rural Development, No. 2, pp. 1-14. (In Persian)
Goli, A., Asgari, A., (2008), Tehran Earthquake and Spatial Assessment of Vulnerability of Businesses: A Case Study of Tehran Banking Network, Quarterly Journal of Teacher of Humanities - Spatial Planning and Planning, Vol.14, No. 1, P.58. (In Persian)
Hajizadeh, Fazel and Istgoldi Mostafa (2018) An Analysis on the Resilience of Rural Settlements with Emphasis on Earthquake (Case Study: Suburbs of Lamerd County), Quarterly Journal of Environmental Risk Management, No. 1, pp. 67-83. (In Persian)
Herreria, E. et al. (2006), Assessing dependence on water for agriculture and social resilience, Canberra: Bureau of rural Sciences
Hunter, Lori M, Sheena, Murray, Fernando Riosmena, (2012): “Climatic Variability and U.S. Migration from Rural Mexico Population Program POP, ISB” Institute of Behavioral Since.
Karami, M., (2012), "Earthquake Risk Assessment and Vulnerability of Cities Using Geographic Information System" M.Sc. in Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, 2012, p.83. (In Persian)
Kohestani, H. (2016) Measuring the satisfaction of rural households with the performance of rural areas and the factors affecting it in the central part of Hamadan city, Geography and Planning, No. 58, pp. 221-235. (In Persian)
Mahdavi, D., Hezarian, E., (2017), Assessment and analysis of the physical vulnerability of rural settlements to earthquakes (Case study: Villages of Yazd city), Journal of Physical Planning and Development, Vol. 2, No. 4, 27-45. (In Persian)
Mikaniniki, J., Esmaeilnezhad, M., & Akbarpour, M. (2019) Evaluation of the Vulnerability of Rural Settlements Against Environmental Hazards: A Case Study of Birjand and Khosf, Journal of Rural Research, 10(2), pp 244-257. (In Persian)
Min, Xu. et al. (2012). “Change Detection of UN/ISDR, (2005). “National Report of Iran on Word Conference on Disaster Reduction”. 18-22 January, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan, pp. 149.
Mohammadi, Sadi, Rostami, Shahbakht, Taleshi, Mostafa, Soltanimoghadasi, Reyhaneh(2016),The role of natural factors in the instability of rural settlements in the mountainous region and Zagros mountains Case study: Marivan and Saravabad villages, geography and development, 3(45), pp. 133-158. (In Persian)
Monared, M.A.S.et al, (2006),” Ranking Analysis and Modeling of state Run universities “, Scientia Iranica, vol.13, No.1, pp.91-105.
Normandin J.-M, Therrien M.-C, Tanguay G.A, (2011), City strength in times of turbulence: strategic resilience indicators, Urban Affairs Association 41st Conference, New Orleans.
Parishan, M., Portaheri, M., Rokanuddin Eftekhari, A., Askari, A., (2011), Ranking and Assessing the Vulnerability of Rural Settlements to Earthquake Risk (Case Study: Rural Areas of Qazvin Province), Quarterly Journal of Spatial Planning and Planning, Vol.17, No.3, pp. 1-25. (In Persian)
Portaheri, M., Hajinejad, A., Fattahi, A., Nemati, R., (2014), Assessment of physical vulnerability of rural settlements against natural hazards (earthquake) using Coopras decision model (Case study: villages of Chalan Cholan rural district of Dorud city), space planning and planning, Vol.18, No.3, pp. 29-52. (In Persian)
Portaheri, M., Sajasi Gheidari, H., Sadeghlou, T., (2011), Comparative evaluation of natural hazard rating methods in rural areas (Case study: Zanjan province), Rural Research Quarterly, Vol.2, No.7, p.35. (In Persian)
Rezvani, M. R, Lotfi, H, & Talebifard, R. (2017) Analysis of Factors Affecting the Tendency of Villagers to Receive Rural Housing Improvement Facilities Case Study: Mehrouyeh County, Faryab County, Geography and Planning, No. 59, pp. 113-132. (In Persian)
Shakur, A., Karimi Ghotbabadi, F., Maleki, M., (2017), Risk analysis of rural settlements against earthquakes (Case study: Lamerd villages), Regional Planning Quarterly, Vol.7, N. 26, pp. 81-92. (In Persian)
Shayan, M., Paydar, A., Bazvand, S., (2017), Analysis of the effects of improving resilience indices on the sustainability of rural settlements against floods: A case study of rural areas of Zarrin Dasht city, Journal of Natural Risk Management, Vol. 4, N. 2, pp. 103-121. (In Persian)
Smith, k, (2000), Enviromental hazards: Assessing risk and reducing disaster, Routledge, NewYork.
Statistical Yearbook, (2016), Ardabil Province, Statistics Center of Iran. (In Persian)
Suarez. M, Gomez-Baggethun. E, Benayas.J, and Tilbury. D. (2016). Towards an Urban Resilience Index: A Case Study in 50 Spanish Cities, Sustainability, Vol. 8, No. 8, pp.1- 19.
Tobin, G. A. (1999), "Sustainability and community resilience: The holy grail of hazards planning?” Environmental Hazards, Vol.1, No.1, PP: 13-25.
Wisner, B, (2004), Notes on Social Vulnerbility: Categories, Situation, Capabilites and Circum Stances, environmental Studies program; Oberlin College.
