پهنه بندی میزان خطرپذیری نواحی جنوبی استان خوزستان در شرایط تغییر اقلیم با تأکید بر زیرساخت‌های صنعتی
الموضوعات :
آرش رحیمی
1
,
رضا برنا
2
,
جعفر مرشدی
3
,
جبرئیل قربانیان
4
1 - دانشجوی دکتری آب و هواشناسی، گروه جغرافیا، واحد اهواز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی اهواز، ایران.
2 - دانشیار گروه جغرافیا، واحد اهواز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی اهواز، ایران.*(مسوول مکاتبات)
3 - استادیار گروه جغرافیا، واحد اهواز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی اهواز، ایران.
4 - گروه جغرافیا، واحد اهواز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اهواز، ایران
تاريخ الإرسال : 09 الإثنين , صفر, 1444
تاريخ التأكيد : 29 الأربعاء , ربيع الثاني, 1444
تاريخ الإصدار : 28 السبت , جمادى الثانية, 1444
الکلمات المفتاحية:
تغییراقلیم,
خوزستان,
زیرساخت,
بارش,
دما,
ملخص المقالة :
زمینه و هدف: تغییر اقلیم را می‌توان یکی از بزرگترین چالش‌های محیط‌زیست دوران اخیر دانست که نشان‌دهنده تغییرات غیرمعمول در اقلیم درونی اتمسفر زمین و پیامدهای ناشی از آن در قسمت‌های مختلف کره زمین است که تهدیدی جدی برای محیط‌زیست به شمار می‌رود. هدف از این پژوهش تهیه نقشه پهنه‌بندی آسیب‌پذیری زیرساخت‌های نواحی جنوبی خوزستان در شرایط تغییر اقلیم می‌باشد.
روش بررسی: بدین منظور با استفاده از منابع پیشین و مصاحبه با کارشناسان یازده متغیر مجموع بارش سالانه، میانگین دمای فصل گرم و سرد، روند بارش‌های حدی بیش از 5 میلی‌متر روزانه، تعداد کدهای گردوغبار، رخداد امواج گرم بالای صدک 95 م، تغییرات بارش، جا به جایی خط ساحلی، تغییرات آب زیرزمینی، سیلاب و آبگرفتگی و تغییرات دما در طی سال 1399 تا 1400مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. با استفاده از دو آزمون تحلیل روند یعنی آزمون تحلیل روند تخمین‌گر شیب سنس و آزمون تحلیل روند من-کندال روند سری زمانی 32 ساله این عناصر طی دوره آماری پایه (2017-1985)، بررسی شد.
یافته ها: نواحی جنوبی منطقه مورد مطالعه خوزستان دارای میانگین دمای معادل بیش از 38 درجه سانتی‌گراد در سال بوده است در حالی که بخش‌های شمالی و مرکز منطقه مورد مطالعه دارای دمای بیشتر از 5/38 درجه سانتی‌گراد در سال بوده است. بخش جنوبی خوزستان دارای بارش سالانه‌ای معادل بیش از 273 میلی‌متر در سال بوده است در حالی که بخش‌های جنوبی منطقه مورد مطالعه دارای بارش کمتر از 200 میلی‌متر در سال و در برخی موارد حدود 156 میلی‌متر در سال بوده است.
بحث و نتیجه گیری: نتایج نشان می‌دهد که پهنه مخاطره‌آمیز زیاد و بسیار زیاد 80 درصد منطقه را در برگرفته‌اند.
المصادر:
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Bakhshi Shadmehri Zarqani, S.H., Kharazmi, A. A. (2016). Analysis of passive defense considerations in urban infrastructure with emphasis on water infrastructure. Journal of Geographical Research, 31: 120-104.
Salehnasab, A., Khalilabad Police Station, H., Continuator, Y. (2019). Identification and evaluation of threats in the infrastructure of threats in the critical infrastructure of cities with a passive defense approach (Case study: 6 Region 6 of Tehran). Journal of Urban Research and Planning, 9: 99-114. Doi: 1001.1.20086849.1400.12.4.3.5.
Trenberth Kevin, E., Philip, D. (2019). Jones Peter Ambenje, Roxana Bojariu, David asterling, Albert Klein Tank, David Parker, Fatemeh Rahimzadeh, James A. Renwick, Matilde Rusticucci, Brian Soden, Panmao Zhai. IPCCWGIbservations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change. 52: 308-312.
Abdi, P. (2005). Study of climate change in Ghezel Ozan watershed in Zanjan province and its impact on water resources in the region. Sepehr Magazine, 53: 38-47. (In persian)
Oliviera, J.V., Cohen, J.C.P., Pimente, M., Touringo, H.L.Z., Lobo, A., Sodre, G., Abdala, A. (2020). Urban climate and environmental perception about climate change in Belém, Pará, Brazil. Urban Climate, 31: 100579. 16 Pp. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2019.100579.
Singh, A.S., Zwickle, A., Bruskotter, J.T., Wilson, R. (2019). The perceived psychological distance of climate change impacts and its influence on support for adaptation policy. Environmetnal of Science Policy, 73: 93–99. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2017.04.011.
Motahar, A.A.A. (2018). The effects of climate change on Iran's environment and its challenges in advancing the pattern of progress. 7th Iranian Islamic Model of Progress Conference from the basic model to the Iranian Islamic model of progress, pp. 1-20.
Blanco, A.V.R. (2016). Local initiatives and adaptation to climate change. Disasters, 30(1):140-147. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9523.2006.00311.x
Manafeloeyan, C., Saeedeh Zarabadi, Z., Behzadfar, M. (2018). Assessing the factors affecting climate resilience (Case study: Tabriz). Journal of New Attitudes in Human Geography, 12: 526-509.
White, R., Boult, T., Chow, E. (2014). A computational asset vulnerability model for the strategic protection of the critical infrastructure, International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, 7(3): 167-177.
Udie, J., Bhattacharyya, S., Ozawa-Meida, L. (2019). A Conceptual Framework for Vulnerability Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Critical Oil and Gas Infrastructure in the Niger Delta, Climate 6: 11-19. DOI:10.3390/cli6010011. www.mdpi. com/journal/climate.
Reder, A, Iturbide S., Herrera G., Rianna P. (2018). Mercogliano1,5 and J. M. Gutiérrez3 Assessing variations of extreme indices inducing weather-hazards on critical infrastructures over Europe the INTACT framework, Climatic Change https://doi.org/ 10.1007/s10584-018-2184-4.
Fakhruddin, B. S., Reinen-Hamill, R., Robertson, R. (2020). Extent and evaluation of vulnerability for disaster risk reduction of urban Nuku'alofa, Tonga. Progress in Disaster Science, 100017. https:// doi.org/ 10.1016/j.pdisas.2019.100017- 100027. https:// doi.org/ 10.1016/j.pdisas.2019.100017.
Soltani, S.R., Mousavi S., Zali, N. (2108). Risk analysis and assessment of regional infrastructure from the perspective of passive defense Case study: South Pars Industrial Zone. Journal of Regional Planning, 7: 83 -94.
Zarqani, S.H., Mofidi, A.S., Shafieinia, M. (2018). Climate change analysis and its consequences Case study: Sea level rise. The Second National Conference on Meteorology of Iran, Mashhad, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad. (In Persian)
Vice President of Planning and Economic Affairs of Khuzestan Industrial Towns, 2017.
Timmerman, P. (1981). Vulnerability, resilience and the collapse of society, Environmental Monograph.
Johansson, J., Hassel, H. (2010). An approach for modelling interdependent infrastructures in the context of vulnerability analysis. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 95(12):1335-1344. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2010.06.010
Johansson, J., Henrik, H., Enrico, Z. (2013). Reliability and vulnerability analyses of critical infrastructures: Comparing two approaches in the context of power systems. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 120: 27-38.
Lee, EE., Mitchell, J.E., Wallace, W.A. (2019). Restoration of Services in Interdependent Infrastructure Systems: A Network Flow Approach. IEEE Transaction on Systems Magazine, 37: 1303-1318.
Bahrami, Y. Marsousi, N. Absolute power, A. Ahmadi, K. (2014). The impact of climate on the sustainability of urban systems. International Conference on Sustainable Development, Strategies and Challenges focusing on Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Tourism, Tabriz, Permanent Secretariat of the International Conference on Sustainable Development, Strategies and Challenges.
Jamali, S. (2014). Pathology of hydropower plants in the face of the effects of climate change; Case study: Karkheh catchment. Quarterly Journal of Iran Hydropower Dam and Power Plant. 1: 25-37. https://doi.org/1001.1.23225882.1393.1.2.3.5.(In Persian)
_||_
Yazdani, M., Seyedin, A. (2016). Assessment of spatial vulnerability of infrastructure in Ardabil from the perspective of passive defense. Journal of Applied Research in Geographical Sciences, 17: 199-179.
Bakhshi Shadmehri Zarqani, S.H., Kharazmi, A. A. (2016). Analysis of passive defense considerations in urban infrastructure with emphasis on water infrastructure. Journal of Geographical Research, 31: 120-104.
Salehnasab, A., Khalilabad Police Station, H., Continuator, Y. (2019). Identification and evaluation of threats in the infrastructure of threats in the critical infrastructure of cities with a passive defense approach (Case study: 6 Region 6 of Tehran). Journal of Urban Research and Planning, 9: 99-114. Doi: 1001.1.20086849.1400.12.4.3.5.
Trenberth Kevin, E., Philip, D. (2019). Jones Peter Ambenje, Roxana Bojariu, David asterling, Albert Klein Tank, David Parker, Fatemeh Rahimzadeh, James A. Renwick, Matilde Rusticucci, Brian Soden, Panmao Zhai. IPCCWGIbservations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change. 52: 308-312.
Abdi, P. (2005). Study of climate change in Ghezel Ozan watershed in Zanjan province and its impact on water resources in the region. Sepehr Magazine, 53: 38-47. (In persian)
Oliviera, J.V., Cohen, J.C.P., Pimente, M., Touringo, H.L.Z., Lobo, A., Sodre, G., Abdala, A. (2020). Urban climate and environmental perception about climate change in Belém, Pará, Brazil. Urban Climate, 31: 100579. 16 Pp. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2019.100579.
Singh, A.S., Zwickle, A., Bruskotter, J.T., Wilson, R. (2019). The perceived psychological distance of climate change impacts and its influence on support for adaptation policy. Environmetnal of Science Policy, 73: 93–99. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2017.04.011.
Motahar, A.A.A. (2018). The effects of climate change on Iran's environment and its challenges in advancing the pattern of progress. 7th Iranian Islamic Model of Progress Conference from the basic model to the Iranian Islamic model of progress, pp. 1-20.
Blanco, A.V.R. (2016). Local initiatives and adaptation to climate change. Disasters, 30(1):140-147. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9523.2006.00311.x
Manafeloeyan, C., Saeedeh Zarabadi, Z., Behzadfar, M. (2018). Assessing the factors affecting climate resilience (Case study: Tabriz). Journal of New Attitudes in Human Geography, 12: 526-509.
White, R., Boult, T., Chow, E. (2014). A computational asset vulnerability model for the strategic protection of the critical infrastructure, International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, 7(3): 167-177.
Udie, J., Bhattacharyya, S., Ozawa-Meida, L. (2019). A Conceptual Framework for Vulnerability Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Critical Oil and Gas Infrastructure in the Niger Delta, Climate 6: 11-19. DOI:10.3390/cli6010011. www.mdpi. com/journal/climate.
Reder, A, Iturbide S., Herrera G., Rianna P. (2018). Mercogliano1,5 and J. M. Gutiérrez3 Assessing variations of extreme indices inducing weather-hazards on critical infrastructures over Europe the INTACT framework, Climatic Change https://doi.org/ 10.1007/s10584-018-2184-4.
Fakhruddin, B. S., Reinen-Hamill, R., Robertson, R. (2020). Extent and evaluation of vulnerability for disaster risk reduction of urban Nuku'alofa, Tonga. Progress in Disaster Science, 100017. https:// doi.org/ 10.1016/j.pdisas.2019.100017- 100027. https:// doi.org/ 10.1016/j.pdisas.2019.100017.
Soltani, S.R., Mousavi S., Zali, N. (2108). Risk analysis and assessment of regional infrastructure from the perspective of passive defense Case study: South Pars Industrial Zone. Journal of Regional Planning, 7: 83 -94.
Zarqani, S.H., Mofidi, A.S., Shafieinia, M. (2018). Climate change analysis and its consequences Case study: Sea level rise. The Second National Conference on Meteorology of Iran, Mashhad, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad. (In Persian)
Vice President of Planning and Economic Affairs of Khuzestan Industrial Towns, 2017.
Timmerman, P. (1981). Vulnerability, resilience and the collapse of society, Environmental Monograph.
Johansson, J., Hassel, H. (2010). An approach for modelling interdependent infrastructures in the context of vulnerability analysis. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 95(12):1335-1344. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2010.06.010
Johansson, J., Henrik, H., Enrico, Z. (2013). Reliability and vulnerability analyses of critical infrastructures: Comparing two approaches in the context of power systems. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 120: 27-38.
Lee, EE., Mitchell, J.E., Wallace, W.A. (2019). Restoration of Services in Interdependent Infrastructure Systems: A Network Flow Approach. IEEE Transaction on Systems Magazine, 37: 1303-1318.
Bahrami, Y. Marsousi, N. Absolute power, A. Ahmadi, K. (2014). The impact of climate on the sustainability of urban systems. International Conference on Sustainable Development, Strategies and Challenges focusing on Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Tourism, Tabriz, Permanent Secretariat of the International Conference on Sustainable Development, Strategies and Challenges.
Jamali, S. (2014). Pathology of hydropower plants in the face of the effects of climate change; Case study: Karkheh catchment. Quarterly Journal of Iran Hydropower Dam and Power Plant. 1: 25-37. https://doi.org/1001.1.23225882.1393.1.2.3.5.(In Persian)
