شناسایی و رتبه بندی علل بروز بحران دریاچه ارومیه با بکارگیری روش دلفی
الموضوعات :
علی رضا اعجازی
1
(
دکتری مدیریت محیط زیست دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات دانشکده منابع طبیعی و محیط زیست، تهران، ایران
)
محمود شریعت
2
(
استاد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات ، تهران ، ایران*(مسئول مکاتبات)
)
پروین فرشچی
3
(
استادیار تمام وقت، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و محیط زیست ، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات تهران ، ایران
)
تاريخ الإرسال : 11 السبت , ربيع الأول, 1438
تاريخ التأكيد : 18 الأربعاء , جمادى الأولى, 1438
تاريخ الإصدار : 25 الجمعة , رجب, 1441
الکلمات المفتاحية:
شناسایی علل بحران,
روش دلفی,
رتبه بندی سلسله مراتبی,
دریاچه ارومیه,
ملخص المقالة :
زمینه و هدف : خشک سالی یکی از پدیده های طبیعی است که بیش ترین آسیب آن در مناطق بیابانی و نیمه بیابانی به چشم می خورد . حوضه آبریز دریاچه ی ارومیه با تراکم جمعیت نسبتا زیاد امروزه یکی از چالش های زیست محیطی ایران می باشد. به طوری که در سال های اخیر به دلیل ورود حجم آب کم از رودخانه ها و کمبود بارش منطقه ای حیات این دریاچه در معرض تهدید جدی قرار گرفته است .این حوضه آبریز با مساحت 52000 کیلومتر مربع و میانگین بارش 200 تا 900 میلی متر، حجم آبی در حدود 22 میلیارد متر مکعب بارش در سطح حوضه را دارا می باشد . جهت تامین نیازهای کشاورزی و انسانی به آب شیرین ، سدهای زیادی با حجم ذخیره حدود3 میلیارد متر مکعب در روی بستر رودخانه های اصلی دریاچه احداث شده است. با عنایت به کاهش مساحت حوضه آبریز دریاچه و ورود میزان آب در نظر گرفته شده به دریاچه ، احیای کامل دریاچه به وضع طبیعی قبلی بعید به نظر می رسد .روش بررسی : در این تحقیق سعی شده است تا با شناسایی علل بروز بحران به روش دلفی و رتبه بندی سلسله مراتبی حد تاثیر هر کدام از عوامل بروز بحران را تبیین نمود و به اولویت های مدیریتی دست یافت .یافته ها : در این تحقیق چهار معیار اصلی و 21 زیرمعیار جهت علل بروز بحران دریاچه ارومیه شناسایی شده است .بحث و نتیجه گیری : بر اساس نتایج این تحقیق از چهار معیار اصلی و 21 زیرمعیار شناسایی شده ، ساخت سد ها با تاثیر 23 درصد و تغییر الگوی کشت با تاثیر 8 درصداز مهم ترین عوامل بروز بحران در دریاچه ارومیه شناخته شدند .
المصادر:
Ghobadi, Fatemeh, Saghafian, Bahram and Iraqi-Nejad Shahab (1393). Determination of the drought threshold of a realistic water resources management tool in the Urumia Lake basin. Water resources research. Issue 10, Issue 2, 76-66.(Persian)
Lak, Razieh; Dervishi Khatouni, Javad, Mohammadi, Ali (2011), Paleolymological studies and causes of sudden decrease in Lake Urumia water level, Journal of Applied Geology, 2007, No. 4.(Persian)
Saleh Nia, Mina, Hayati, Babollah, Ghahramanzadeh, Mohammad; Molaei, Morteza (2013), Estimation of the Value of Improvement of the Environmental Status of Lake Urumia: Using the Selection Test Method, Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, Vol. 27, No. 4.(Persian)
Abbas Nejad, Marzieh, Khalili, Keyvan and Behmanesh, Javad (1394). Application of the AR-ARCH compilation model in predicting Lake Urumia's balance. Water and soil knowledge. Vol. 25, No. 2, pp. 168-175.(Persian)
Fathi, Mohammad Hossein, Madadi, Aqil, Beheshti, Ibrahim and Sarmasti, Nader (1394). Evaluation of water level fluctuations in Urumia and increase of salt zones in northwest region of Iran. Natural geographic researches. 47the period, No. 2, pp. 270-285.(Persian)
Vaezi Hair, Abdolreza; Sari Saraf, Behrouz; Valaie, Akram (1395), Study of the causes of decreasing flow in the south east of the Lake of Urumia, Journal of Research, Journal of Geography, Islamic Azad University, Ahar Branch, year 16 Number 53.(Persian)
Kamali, Meysam, Youneszadeh Jamali, Soheila (1394), Study of Land Use Change in Lake Urumia Basin Using Satellite Images, Sharif University of Technology Project.(Persian)
Vali Zadeh, Nasser, Bijani, Massoud and Abbasi, Enayat (1394). Environmentalist analysis of farmers' participatory behavior in protecting surface water resources in the southern watershed of Lake Urumia. Science and Technology Education and Training in Iran. Volume 11, Issue 2.(Persian)
Toluhi, Zaher, M., Saeed, Ahmadzadeh (1394), Uncertainty analysis of the effects of pressurized irrigation systems on the flow of outlet from the Urumia lake basin, Case study: Zarineh roud basin. Iranian Journal of Water Resources Research, Vol. 11, No. 2, Autumn 2013 P. (135-135) .(Persian)
Mohammadi Yeganeh, Behrouz, Valaei, Mohammad, Cheraghi, Mehdi (1392), The Effects of Reduction of Urumia Lake Water Level in the Agricultural Economy of the Villages (Case Study: North Marhamat Abad Village, Miandoab County), Journal of Geography and Natural Hazards, Number fifth.(Persian)
Mohammadzadeh, Shahram, Sedghi, Hasan; Medical Sciences; Rad; Gholamreza; Makhdoom; Majid; Sharifi Kia; Mohammad (1393); Analysis of the Consequences of Land Use Change from Gardener's Point of View in the West of Urumia Lake Lakeshore, Journal of Research Economics and Development of Agriculture, Volume 45, Issue 45.(Persian)
Site of the Orumia Reclamation Department at http://ulrp.sharif.ir (1394) .(Persian)
Safari, Nasim; Zarghami Mehdi (2013), Optimal allocation of surface water resources of Urmia Lake basin to beneficiary provinces with distance-based decision making methods, Danesh water and soil journal, Volume 23, Number 1 .(Persian)
Ahmadian, Mohammad Ali, Asghari, Samira (1392), Environmental Consequences of Urmia Lake Loss and Rescue Solutions, Geographic Magazine No. 40.(Persian)
Bizhani, Masoud, Abbasi, Enayat (1394), Environmentalist analysis of farmers' participatory behavior in protecting surface water resources in the southern watershed of Lake Urumia, Journal of Agricultural Science and Development, Vol. 11, No. 2.(Persian)
Mahab Ghods Consulting Engineers Co., November 2013, Environmental Studies Report of Urumia Basin, Ministry of Energy, Water and Water Planning Office.(Persian)
Protection plan for Iranian wetlands in cooperation with Asarab Consulting Engineers, 2014, Guidelines for determining the water needs of Iran's wetlands, Tala'i publication, first edition.(Persian)
Western Zarbayjan Regional Water Company - 1393 - Investigating the Effect of Land Use Change on Soil Erosion in Urumia Lake Basin.(Persian)
Ghasemi, Younes (1393), Optimal Ecotourism Development in Protected Areas of Lake Urmia by Strategic Planning.(Persian)
_||_
Ghobadi, Fatemeh, Saghafian, Bahram and Iraqi-Nejad Shahab (1393). Determination of the drought threshold of a realistic water resources management tool in the Urumia Lake basin. Water resources research. Issue 10, Issue 2, 76-66.(Persian)
Lak, Razieh; Dervishi Khatouni, Javad, Mohammadi, Ali (2011), Paleolymological studies and causes of sudden decrease in Lake Urumia water level, Journal of Applied Geology, 2007, No. 4.(Persian)
Saleh Nia, Mina, Hayati, Babollah, Ghahramanzadeh, Mohammad; Molaei, Morteza (2013), Estimation of the Value of Improvement of the Environmental Status of Lake Urumia: Using the Selection Test Method, Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, Vol. 27, No. 4.(Persian)
Abbas Nejad, Marzieh, Khalili, Keyvan and Behmanesh, Javad (1394). Application of the AR-ARCH compilation model in predicting Lake Urumia's balance. Water and soil knowledge. Vol. 25, No. 2, pp. 168-175.(Persian)
Fathi, Mohammad Hossein, Madadi, Aqil, Beheshti, Ibrahim and Sarmasti, Nader (1394). Evaluation of water level fluctuations in Urumia and increase of salt zones in northwest region of Iran. Natural geographic researches. 47the period, No. 2, pp. 270-285.(Persian)
Vaezi Hair, Abdolreza; Sari Saraf, Behrouz; Valaie, Akram (1395), Study of the causes of decreasing flow in the south east of the Lake of Urumia, Journal of Research, Journal of Geography, Islamic Azad University, Ahar Branch, year 16 Number 53.(Persian)
Kamali, Meysam, Youneszadeh Jamali, Soheila (1394), Study of Land Use Change in Lake Urumia Basin Using Satellite Images, Sharif University of Technology Project.(Persian)
Vali Zadeh, Nasser, Bijani, Massoud and Abbasi, Enayat (1394). Environmentalist analysis of farmers' participatory behavior in protecting surface water resources in the southern watershed of Lake Urumia. Science and Technology Education and Training in Iran. Volume 11, Issue 2.(Persian)
Toluhi, Zaher, M., Saeed, Ahmadzadeh (1394), Uncertainty analysis of the effects of pressurized irrigation systems on the flow of outlet from the Urumia lake basin, Case study: Zarineh roud basin. Iranian Journal of Water Resources Research, Vol. 11, No. 2, Autumn 2013 P. (135-135) .(Persian)
Mohammadi Yeganeh, Behrouz, Valaei, Mohammad, Cheraghi, Mehdi (1392), The Effects of Reduction of Urumia Lake Water Level in the Agricultural Economy of the Villages (Case Study: North Marhamat Abad Village, Miandoab County), Journal of Geography and Natural Hazards, Number fifth.(Persian)
Mohammadzadeh, Shahram, Sedghi, Hasan; Medical Sciences; Rad; Gholamreza; Makhdoom; Majid; Sharifi Kia; Mohammad (1393); Analysis of the Consequences of Land Use Change from Gardener's Point of View in the West of Urumia Lake Lakeshore, Journal of Research Economics and Development of Agriculture, Volume 45, Issue 45.(Persian)
Site of the Orumia Reclamation Department at http://ulrp.sharif.ir (1394) .(Persian)
Safari, Nasim; Zarghami Mehdi (2013), Optimal allocation of surface water resources of Urmia Lake basin to beneficiary provinces with distance-based decision making methods, Danesh water and soil journal, Volume 23, Number 1 .(Persian)
Ahmadian, Mohammad Ali, Asghari, Samira (1392), Environmental Consequences of Urmia Lake Loss and Rescue Solutions, Geographic Magazine No. 40.(Persian)
Bizhani, Masoud, Abbasi, Enayat (1394), Environmentalist analysis of farmers' participatory behavior in protecting surface water resources in the southern watershed of Lake Urumia, Journal of Agricultural Science and Development, Vol. 11, No. 2.(Persian)
Mahab Ghods Consulting Engineers Co., November 2013, Environmental Studies Report of Urumia Basin, Ministry of Energy, Water and Water Planning Office.(Persian)
Protection plan for Iranian wetlands in cooperation with Asarab Consulting Engineers, 2014, Guidelines for determining the water needs of Iran's wetlands, Tala'i publication, first edition.(Persian)
Western Zarbayjan Regional Water Company - 1393 - Investigating the Effect of Land Use Change on Soil Erosion in Urumia Lake Basin.(Persian)
Ghasemi, Younes (1393), Optimal Ecotourism Development in Protected Areas of Lake Urmia by Strategic Planning.(Persian)
